This column foolishly began a tradition of year-end reflections and predictions. This is the fourth. This past year’s predictions were better than previous ones, which was not a high bar.
As predicted, apartment applications have slowed, but because time from application to completion is so long, it feels like the explosion continues. Virtually every structure built is tagged as “ugly,” although it’s telling that no complainer ever cites an existing local complex as beautiful.
Another easy one coming true is the stiffening of NIMBYs. Eventually, if widespread development equity occurs, no part of town will be immune from self-righteous anger from those who’ve got theirs. Some even suggest banning NIMBY as hate speech.
One false expectation was thinking development of the city’s land in the northwest quadrant would be a hot topic. It’s still a topic, but a quiet one and still a long way from imminent development. The city made good moves by creating local preference language on future land sales and reserving 19 acres for affordable housing.
Another bad guess was saying the Land Use Department would continue to “twist in the wind.” The city made another good move and elevated from within the quietly competent Jason Kluk and brought Heather Lamboy back to the city as his deputy.
An easy one was predicting booming developments in the Community College District. That will continue. Big time. Indeed, it’s where the vast majority of single-family homes will be built in the near term.
Now, some predictions for 2023:
Santa Fe’s housing nonprofits — Homewise, the Housing Trust and Habitat for Humanity — will challenge greedy developer tropes and increase production. Habitat will expand beyond a handful of homes per year as nonbuilder developers finally realize donating their 20 percent affordability lots to Habitat makes more sense than them building money-losers.
A bombshell county housing report showing a current regional housing deficit of over 17,000 dwelling units will be criticized by skeptical NIMBYs. Those who point out the gravity of the crisis will be tarred with never seeing a development they didn’t like. Governing bodies will feel futile frustrations of good intentions hitting the walls of neighborhood resistance.
Tierra Contenta will continue to languish as the city stubbornly refuses to find money for the necessary extension of a public road and public infrastructure. A local nonprofit megadeveloper may be approached, hat in hand, to save the day.
Roman “Tiger” Abeyta, new head of the Housing Trust, will right the foundering ship and set sail for developments of deeply affordable multifamily apartments, sprinkling in market-rate units, as was done with Soleras Station.
Grand ambitions for Las Soleras as a high-tech job-creating innovation village will morph into a nibbling-at-the-edges rise of medical office expansions around Presbyterian hospital. A few more apartments will be thrown in, but a long-desired new Rail Runner stop won’t even be a gleam in anyone’s eye anymore.
Rents will stop rising and begin to fall, but will still be more than many can afford.
Santa Fe County, with the additions of Commissioners Camilla Bustamante and Justin Greene, will become the hottest government YouTube channel to watch.
Mayor Alan Webber will break a tie and approve the Old Pecos Trail development on Jan. 11, defying expectations of his District 2 neighbors. He’ll face accusations of being in the pocket of developers, which are not true.
The midtown campus will continue on its path of zoning approvals, land swaps, infrastructure estimates, developer negotiations, community outreach and reports to committees. No groveling but no shoveling, either. Some predictions are too easy.
