State Rep. John Block says he’s too young to do it.
Sen. Greg Baca says he’s been approached.
U.S. Rep. Teresa Leger Fernández says she’ll give it a pass.
Yes, it’s still early. But in politics, it’s never too soon to think about the next race for the state’s highest elected office.
Though Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham still has more than three years remaining in her second term, the just-completed legislative session fired up talk — and, at this point, it’s all talk — about who might be thinking about a run in 2026, particularly in an era when it’s more important than ever to raise money, build name recognition and develop a platform.
Block, a Republican from Alamogordo, said it’s not too soon for Republicans to begin drawing in potential candidates for governor.
“If anything, it’s too late to be talking about this,” said the 26-year-old House freshman, who noted he will not be old enough — 30 — to run for governor in four years. He said New Mexico Republicans “need to find a strategy that’s about winning at every level from the governorship to local, mayoral, state legislative and school board levels.”
Sen. Jerry Ortiz y Pino, D-Albuquerque, agreed old time frames no longer apply.
“It’s not too early to think about who runs for governor,” he said. “It’s time for them to gear up.”
Nevertheless, while it may not be too soon to think about running, it may be too soon to say you’re running.
For Democrats, much of the speculation has centered on U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich, who has long been rumored to be considering a run. Another possibility is Lt. Gov. Howie Morales, who made an unsuccessful primary attempt in 2014.
Morales said in an interview Friday “it’s too early” to even contemplate another attempt.
“I’ve also learned to never say never,” he added with a light laugh.
If there’s uncertainty among Democrats, consider the Republican Party, which has no obvious candidate and put forward Mark Ronchetti, a former TV weatherman, to challenge Lujan Grisham in 2022.
Baca, the Senate minority leader, said while several people have already asked if he would consider running, “My thought is we’re still four years out from that race. I’m focused on leading the Senate Republican caucus and helping our members there and hopefully being effective in the Legislature.
“At this point that [running for governor] is not on the forefront.”
Another Republican legislator who has quickly gained prominence, Crystal Diamond of Elephant Butte, said in an interview this week “sometime down the line I may run. It certainly wouldn’t be in the next few years.”
She said some people have approached her about the idea but bemoaned the fact the Republican Party is “so low on potential candidates … they are asking a freshman senator to consider it.”
Though the state’s congressional delegation has largely sidestepped the question, a spokeswoman for Leger Fernández emailed Friday to say “she is not going to run.”
For his part, Heinrich in an email said his “focus is on working hard for the people of New Mexico in the U.S. Senate. Governor Lujan Grisham was just reelected — she deserves the space to govern before the political speculation ensues.”
Ortiz y Pino noted with a laugh that many people “used to think New Mexico was a stepping stone to Washington. Now, they are using Washington as a stepping stone to the governorship in New Mexico.”
All about the numbers
Ortiz y Pino, who has indicated he will not run for reelection to the state Senate next year, said Democratic candidates for the job need to maintain the support of their core constituency — minorities, women, the labor movement and environmentalists — to win in a state where voter registrations heavily favor Democrats.
Republican candidates, he said, have it tougher because not only will they have to win over some Democratic and independent voters to their cause, they also may have to modify their stance on certain issues to do so — a move that could cost them support among their core base.
“The Republicans have a small but absolutely devoted base who will not be budged,” he said in an interview. “But it’s small. I don’t think if they tap that base with their next candidate they will be able to broaden their appeal very much.”
He noted New Mexico’s last three Republican governors were largely political outsiders who seemed to offer something a little different to attract Democrats and independents: Susana Martinez was a prosecutor; Gary Johnson a businessman and Garrey Carruthers an academic.
Albuquerque pollster Brian Sanderoff noted the same theme among the three. He also pointed out that with one exception — Lujan Grisham’s reelection while Democrat Joe Biden serves as president — New Mexico voters have tended to elect governors from the opposing party of the one that holds the White House.
“The national mood does play a role in state elections,” Sanderoff said in an interview. “Historically, the party not in the White House during the elections wins lots of legislative seats, gubernatorial seats, congressional seats, senate seats.”
As such, the 2024 general election results on the presidential level could play a role in the next gubernatorial race in New Mexico, he said.
Still, the political makeup of New Mexico’s 1.3 million registered voters is likely to play a deeper role. Roughly 44% of the state’s registered voters are Democrats, while just over 31% are Republicans, according to data on the Secretary of State’s website.
Nearly 23% are registered as independents (a group that includes “decline to state” party affiliation).
As a result, Sanderoff said, “Simple math tells you they [Republicans] have to pick up conservative Democrats and independents” to win the governor’s seat.
Block said to win the next gubernatorial race, Republicans have “got to develop a backbone. Our party needs to stand up and fight relentlessly for our values.”
Acknowledging Republicans will have to woo some Democrats and independents into the fold, Block said a Republican gubernatorial candidate cannot lose the support of the party’s core base of voters.
“Winning our election is not only winning over moderate Democrats but making sure your base comes out to support you,” he said. “We need someone who can harness our base while catering to members who may not be traditional members of our party.”
Baca said Republicans can make inroads by “not drawing lines, [but] by bringing people together, by saying, ‘You’re a Democrat; I’m a Republican: What can we agree on?’ “
Diamond and others say that can be challenging when there will always be an issue or two to divide voters — such as abortion.
Diamond said her party “can no longer move candidates forward who are so entrenched in the old party messaging and expect the other side to embrace them as a candidate.”
Like Baca, she said Republicans have to do a better job explaining where their political values align with others — such as in improving public education and lowering taxes.
She added she thinks some viable Republican candidates for the governor’s seat may be out there, even if they haven’t declared an interest in the race. And perhaps a lack of political experience could help them win the election, as has been the case with Republican victors in the past.
“They may not have served in state government at all — and maybe that’s for the best,” she said.
