Two recent international studies have found social distancing works in slowing the spread of the novel coronavirus — but only if some 80 percent of the population takes part.
If participation falls below that level, “the virus will cascade all over the place,” said Santa Fe resident Stuart Kauffman, an evolutionary biologist, theorist and former physician.
That cascading effect, based on a March study by Imperial College in England, could lead to as many as 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. from COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the coronavirus.
Kauffman, 80, is frustrated because studies showing the effects of social distancing have not received much attention. He fears state leaders, including in New Mexico, will begin to relax restrictions and reopen public spaces and businesses before the threat has passed.
“It’s about all of us doing [social distancing] 80 percent of the time,” said Kauffman, who served on the advisory board of the Santa Fe Institute for a decade and has worked as a consultant for Los Alamos National Laboratory. He also was a MacArthur Fellow in 1987. MacArthur Fellows are nominated for funds to pursue their work in fields such as climate change, health and human rights.
“That means stay in your homes,” Kauffman said. “Don’t go shopping more than once a week and stay at least 6 feet apart.”
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Social distancing would have to be maintained for up to 18 months, according to the U.K. study, or until a vaccine is available.
The second study, from the University of Sydney, found the spread of the novel coronavirus could be brought under control within four months if 80 percent of the population followed social-distancing guidelines. The Australian study, by pandemic modeling authority Mikhail Prokopenko, said if people practiced social distancing 90 percent of the time, the spread of the virus could be stopped in 13 or 14 weeks.
However, Prokopenko said, if participation falls under 70 percent, the practice is rendered useless. “There is a clear trade off — stricter measures imposed earlier would reduce how long our lives are impacted by this disease. On the contrary, laxer protocols could mean a longer, more drawn out and ineffective struggle against COVID-19,” Prokopenko said in the report.
Kauffman, who knows Prokopenko, said it’s important to keep social-distancing requirements in place after the state and nation begin reopening businesses and government services, most of which have been shut down since early March.
Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham’s administration has repeatedly said social distancing is paying off in terms of slowing the spread of the virus in many parts of the state, including Santa Fe County. Earlier this week, she said a plan is underway for reopening the state in phases, though she did not provide a timeline.
Stuart Kauffman, an evolutionary biologist, theorist and former physician, holds charts detailing how the spread of the coronavirus occurs.
She also emphasized social distancing would continue and large gatherings would be prohibited for some time.
Kauffman said researchers, health care experts and others should monitor how the virus moves when businesses reopen.
“Suppose we start to open up New Mexico and the disease, which was dwindling, starts to spread exponentially,” he said.
If researchers find the virus’s spread “has gone up 10 percent a week, that’s going to be terrible,” he said, “and we are going to have to clamp down on ensuring social distancing and doing whatever else we need to do.”
(9) comments
CARSON BAGGETT
YES, those who do not look carefully below the surface are easy marks for manipulative and agenda laden posts. good on you not to be hoodwinked.
i dug deep and discovered the source of the research funding. a small but motivated quilting club in lawrence, kansas funds agitprop, alt right, democratic, republican, and diabetes sufferers anonymous propaganda for the sheer entertainment of sewing confusion among us.
last year, the winning member of the club was 97 year old mckenzie mcarthy , who has since passed on.
dear, herr doktor johnson
you see clearly where others cannot. wunderbar!
and, u are a careful and thoughtful student of modern european history.
how astute, to suggest we recreate the Warsaw Ghetto approach to the issue. it worked for a while in Poland for whomever lived outside the Ghetto Walls....not so much for the residents however.
Based on a study by the Imperial College? The same Imperial College who first predicted 500k deaths in the U.K. helping to inact draconian stay at home orders and then quickly rolled those estimations back to 20k? Hmmm, not sure how much attention should be paid to their opinions. I wonder where the Imperial College’s funding is coming from?
Most of the early estimates were based on a failure to take mitigating measures. Fortunately people reacted quickly to mitigate the spread. Why does that surprise you?
I wouldn't dis this Imperial College; it has a prestigious reputation. Sixteen Nobel Laureates, for example. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imperial_College_London
What is it with folks who are so anti-science?
It’s great if everybody is practicing distancing and wearing masks but sadly alot of people aren’t hence why I am staying out of all public places for the near future.
Not very impressive. NM has been below 5% growth for a month, and in the last 2 weeks it would have been below 2% if it weren't for McKinley and San Juan counties. That is where the problem is, not the entire rest of the state. #OpenNM
If the problem is in San Juan and McKinley counties, it *is* our problem. That's only a hop, skip and a jump from the rest of the state. I'll bet there are hundreds or thousands of native Americans from all parts of the state who have close relatives in Bernalillo and Santa Fe Counties.
C'mon doc, get real and get with the gov's program.
If she would order those infested, diseased places sealed off and isolated, no one in or out, I'm with her on that. Would you be?
mr. chavez
ur reference to hundreds or thousands of our native american brothers living in those two counties is mr. johnson's point. seal 'em off, let 'em fend for themselves, not our problem.
the only thing he omitted was to gather up as many covid 19 infected linens, bed clothes and ppe's, and toss them all over the wall he describes along with any leftover, disease laden blankets still in massachussets.
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