Today is one of high anxiety for a few of our state's most politically prominent citizens — and for a few of those few, things won't get better tomorrow, when New Mexico's two major parties hold their pre-primary conventions.
The Democrats will converge on Buffalo Thunder Resort at Pojoaque Pueblo; the Republicans will be at the Albuquerque Hilton. The highest-profile decisions: Who will get automatic spots on the June 1 primary-election ballot — and who will face rockier routes to state offices.
It takes at least 20 percent of the delegates tomorrow to be a primary candidate — but the more the merrier since bigger numbers have a certain propaganda value, and if they're really big, there's less percentage to be shared among opponents.
But big numbers are no guarantee of a primary landslide: Getting on the ballot by way of the front door can be all an energetic candidate needs to wage a spirited 10-week campaign.
As for the back door — filing additional petition signatures required of those with less than 20 percent — it gets the aspirant on the ballot, all right; but hardly anyone wins a primary without first carrying a fifth of the delegates — and who, in this day of big-money campaigns, is going to bet a bunch of contributions on long-shot candidates?
That 20 percent barrier looms especially large this year: There are five Republicans seeking the gubernatorial nomination, and five Democrats going after the lieutenant governorship. Conceivably, Susana Martínez, Janice Arnold-Jones, Allen Weh, Pete Domenici Jr. and Doug Turner could all come out of the Hilton with their names on the ballot; same for Joe Campos, Jerry Ortiz y Pino, Linda López, Lawrence Rael and Brian Colón at the Buffalo Thunder confab.
But it's more likely that two won't make tomorrow's cut for governor and two others will have to pass more petitions if they hope to join the unopposed Diane Denish on the Democrats' November ticket.
With four Republicans seeking the lieutenant governorship — Brian Moore, J.R. Damron, Kent Cravens and John Sánchez — tomorrow is pivotal, if not crucial. Each could come out with 20 percent-plus, but at least one is likely to be disappointed.
And there are four Democrats and four Republicans vying to replace the term-limited Pat Lyons as commissioner of public lands: Santa Fe County Commissioners Mike Anaya and Harry Montoya, along with Public Regulation Commissioner Sandy Jones and former Land Commissioner Ray Powell Jr. all want the Democratic nomination. One or more might be left looking for extra signatures when the shouting's over tomorrow. A similar scenario faces either Spiro Vassilopoulos, Matthew Rush, James Jackson or Bob Cornelius at the Republican convention.
In some races, then, the candidate list is an encouraging sign of political activity. Those surviving the conventions, and those who'll want to run anyway, could provide plenty of excitement in the days to come.
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