Physical chemist William Keller and his Los Alamos National Laboratory associates converted an old Buick to run on liquid hydrogen and tooled around New Mexico in it. "It got great gas mileage and pretty good speed," said Keller, now retired, who headed the lab's Condensed Matter and Thermal Physics Group.

The fact that only water vapor, instead of carbon dioxide, came out the Buick's tailpipe was of little import at the time, and after a flurry of interest from Mercedes-Benz, the idea was dropped. After all, that was 1975, when climate scientists were more concerned with global cooling than global warming. Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide weren't on the radar screen.

Fast forward 33 years, when climate change now is firmly linked by many climatologists to greenhouse gas emissions, largely due to burning fossil fuels for driving and producing electricity.

Nowadays, a hydrogen-fueled, clean-burning car like the Buick would be a big hit. But it is also likely that some of Keller's beliefs make him a pariah in much of the scientific community.

The former lab scientist maintains science isn't certain about what is causing climate change and the climate has warmed and cooled repeatedly through history. "The question is what does man have to do with it," Keller said. "The correlation between greenhouse gases (as a primary cause) of global warming hasn't been proven."

A bunch of world-class scientists who put together the fourth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (plus a new crop of LANL scientists studying it) disagree. The panel's report, released in 2007, is pretty blunt: The world's climate overall is warming, increasing average air and ocean temperatures, melting ice caps faster than normal and raising sea level. IPCC scientists say with "very high confidence" that human activities such as driving, making electricity and producing goods are the biggest contributor to the warming trend. The impacts on people range from good (fewer people freezing to death in cold climates) to bad (more people starving in warmer regions because of increased drought).

Scientists agree with Keller on this point: Aerosols, denuded land and solar radiation also contribute to global warming and climate change.

David Gutzler, a climatologist at The University of New Mexico, said scientists have been focused on climate change impacts at the global scale. As the models have improved and the historical data records have increased, they are now focusing on the potential regional impacts of global warming. In New Mexico and the already dry West, scientists believe global warming will cause higher winter temperatures, earlier snows, quicker runoffs and more stress on water resources.

Gutzler said the latest tree-ring studies show climate variability has increased in the last century. "We have a great snowpack now, which was not predicted, coming on the heels of a dry winter (2006-2007) and record monsoons," Gutzler said. "We've seen some of the driest summers and winters ever recorded in the last few years."

Sandra Ely is energy and environment coordinator for the New Mexico Environment Department and Gov. Bill Richardson's climate advisory team, charged with reducing the state's greenhouse gas emissions — primarily carbon dioxide and methane. The team surveyed existing emissions and calculated the biggest source was from coal-fired power plants, followed by oil and gas production. Transportation came in third, but is the fastest growing source of emissions, Ely said.

The team made 69 recommendations in 2006 on how the state can reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Ely filed a progress report to the state Legislative Finance Committee on Wednesday in which she said state agencies are increasing the use of renewable energy, improving energy efficiency and pushing for more fuel-efficient cars. "We are just rockin' and rollin' on this stuff," Ely said.

According to Keller, over the course of history, mankind has adjusted to climate change. Periods of warming, for example, contributed to the spread of agriculture. There's plenty of reason to be more energy efficient, use less oil and develop renewable energy sources, he said, but the driving reason behind such adjustments should be energy independence and cheaper fuels, not climate change.

Ely feels differently. Reducing reliance on fossil fuels, building a more diverse energy supply and creating a "green" economy have multiple benefits, she said, "But I firmly believe the most compelling reason to do this is to address global warming, not for this generation but for the generations to come."

While Keller doesn't doubt there is climate change, he disputes the idea the scientific debate over what is causing it is done. Racing to decrease greenhouse gas emissions is fine, if that is really the primary culprit in climate change, Keller said. But the rush can have unintended consequences, he said, like the drain on Midwestern water resources from growing more corn for ethanol.

Retired Santa Fe investment manager Joseph L. Moure said he has read a lot about climate change from various sides, and he too is still not convinced the primary cause is humans. It makes him angry when people like Al Gore say the debate is over. "Since when is the debate over among scientists? Scientific theory is not disproven, just replaced by other theories," Moure said. "Unfortunately there are a lot of people making a lot of money pushing the argument that hydrocarbons are causing global warming."

Making policy based on incomplete scientific data could lead to bigger problems, Moure said.

Courtney White, executive director of the Santa Fe-based land restoration group Quivira Coalition, said figuring out the cause of climate change isn't the most critical issue right now. What is most important is building local food and energy systems to help communities through whatever changes are coming, he said. "I'm beginning to think we're chasing the wrong crisis. Indisputably the planet is warming, but just as indisputably an economic crisis involving affordable food, fuel and water is building. If we don't have a resilient economy and people can't buy fuel or food, they won't be worried about much else," he said.

Contact Staci Matlock at 470-9843 or smatlock@sfnewmexican.com.


2012: The year by which the state must reduce greenhouse gas levels to 2000 levels

78: Estimated million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions in the state in 2007

70: Million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions in the state in 2000

11,647,929: Reduction in individual vehicle miles traveled by Park and Ride customers, 2007

5,649: Tons of greenhouse gas emissions reduced by Park and Ride customers, 2007

52,000: Number of cows whose manure will be converted to pipeline bio-gas through Pecos Valley Biomass Cooperative


Information: Climate Change Advisory Group and New Mexico Department of Transportation