With the first of our nation's political events behind us, and with our state's premier event still to come, second-guessing is in the wind:

* About Iowa — where, after all the time and money invested by presidential candidates from both parties, so little is settled;

* About New Hampshire, whose first-in-the-nation primary election remains as quaint as it is irrelevant;

* And about New Mexico, where a new law governing parties' pre-primary conventions is doubly — and properly — under challenge.

Iowans' strong votes in their state caucus for Barack Obama among Democrats and Mike Huckabee among Republicans certainly will give these two public-relations momentum going into the New Hampshire primary Tuesday. New Mexico's Gov. Bill Richardson, with only 2 percent of the Iowa vote, has only a slim chance of getting what the political pros call a "bounce" above the disappointing figure from Thursday night's Hawkeye caucus.

But, as The New York Times notes, Iowa Democrats are more liberal, more protectionist, than fellow Dems nationwide — and Republicans there are more conservative, and more "religiously driven" than our nation's Republicans as a whole.

Add to that Iowa's allowance for cross-registering, the votes from which made up most of Barack Obama's margin over John Edwards and Hillary Clinton, and the primaries soon to come could produce different results.

Richardson says he'll spend the weekend focusing on the main distinction he's tried to make between himself and the three "top-tier" candidates: His determination to pull our troops out of Iraq. It didn't make much headway in Iowa; we wish him well with it in New Hampshire — and, if he's fortunate, the "super-duper" primaries of Feb. 5.

Meanwhile, much is being made of his camp's urging Iowans to support Obama on the second ballot when Richardson couldn't cross the state's 15-percent threshold in the caucus' first go-round. For now, at least, it looks like a good move. Could it lead to Bill's appointment as secretary of state if Obama wins the White House? A ver ...

New Hampshire, population 1.3 million, isn't much better a bellwether than Iowa — and its decision to hold its primary so early in the year for the sake of being first, renegade Wyoming Republicans to the contrary, has renewed calls for primary-election reform.

Most sensible is one proposed eight years ago by the National Association of Secretaries of State: Four regional primaries, their schedules rotated every presidential-election year.

As for politics New Mexico-style, congressional contender Don Wiviott is suing to invalidate a law passed last legislative session saying only candidates with 20 or more percent of the convention delegates can appear on the June primary ballot.

Meanwhile, a bill has been pre-filed for the coming legislative session to allow the old alternative to 20 percent: petitions, signed by 4 percent of the total vote by the candidate's party.

For that measure to take effect in time for the convention, it would take a two-thirds vote of both houses.

The House of Representatives is headed by Speaker Ben Luján, whose son, regulation commissioner Ben Ray, is one of the many aspirants to succeed Tom Udall in Congress.

When he helped lead the unanimous passage of last year's "serious-candidates-only" law, Luján had no idea that Sen. Pete Domenici would forgo re-election, setting off a congressional avalanche in our state.

Just the same, the heat's on Luján to restore the petition route to the primary — or portray himself and his son as villains going into the convention, the primary and the November general election.

The speaker has a great opportunity to accomplish the opposite: Show our state what a statesman he is — and, in so doing, make a case for a Luján in Congress.