WASHINGTON — Money helped winnow the presidential field. It hasn't determined who each party's nominee will be.
Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton have proven to be
mega-fundraisers, operating at near parity in their own stratosphere.
Each raised $100 million last year and spent at least $80 million. On
Wednesday, they each spent $1.3 million in one day for television ads
in Super Tuesday states, setting the trend for the days ahead.
Whoever loses has not yet been seriously outspent.
Among Republicans, money has been less of a factor. John McCain was
forced to live off the land for six months only to rise to the front of
the pack. Low-budget Mike Huckabee is looking for a break, and Mitt
Romney, the multimillionaire who spent $35 million of his own cash, is
gasping for oxygen after two straight losses.
Rudy Giuliani, who garnered the most contributions among Republican
candidates, bowed out this week after his Florida-centric strategy
collapsed. And dark horse Ron Paul remains in single digits in the
polls despite raising more than any of his Republican rivals in the
last three months of 2007.
Money matters, but it doesn't decide.
"Raising the most amount of money by no means assures you of
winning the presidential primary," said Michael Toner, a campaign
finance lawyer and former chairman of the Federal Election Commission.
"That said, I never knew of any candidate who didn't prefer to have
more money than less."
Without substantive fundraising, Chris Dodd, Joe Biden and Bill
Richardson weren't able to pitch their substantive résumés. John
Edwards, however, raised about a third of what Clinton and Obama each
raised and managed to stay in the hunt, jockeying for second place in
Iowa before slipping away.
Early money was especially significant for Obama, who needed it to
emerge as a credible alternative to Clinton. Obama has not only raised
huge amounts of money, he also has created an enormous donor base. The
Campaign Finance Institute, which tracks trends in political money,
reported Friday that Obama raised about a third of his money in 2007
from donors who gave $200 or less. What's more, only one-third of his
money came from donors who have given the legal maximum of $2,300.
Clinton raised about half of her money from "maxed out" donors and
only 14 percent from donors of $200 or less. That means Obama is much
better positioned to get more money from his donors than Clinton is.
Obama also wowed the political establishment this week by reporting he
had raised $32 million in January — a $1 million-a-day rate previously
unseen in a contested primary.
"There was a wide expectation that Hillary Clinton was going to be
the front-runner, and Senator Obama's fundraising success eliminated
the prospect of inevitability and turned the Democratic race into a
real contest," said Anthony Corrado, a campaign finance expert at Colby
College in Maine.
But Clinton makes up for Obama's financial futures with name recognition, and that levels the Democratic playing field.
McCain represents the most dramatic example of the vicissitudes of
money. He began 2007 with plans to be one of the party's money leaders.
The campaign frittered away the money, the fundraising dried up, and
McCain had to find himself anew. Comfortable in his new, lean political
physique, he focused on the states that knew him best, took out life
insurance to help secure a $3 million line-of-credit in late November
and turned his campaign around.
Like Obama, Romney also needed to raise his profile with cash. He
dipped into his personal wealth and spent even more than Obama or
Clinton did in 2007. By the end of the year, his own money outpaced the
money he was raising — $18 million from his own pocket to $9 million
raised from October through December. But he lost in Iowa and New
Hampshire, the states where he had spent most of his time and money.
"Money is still important to get you into the race," said Steve Weissman, associate director of the Campaign Finance Institute.
But Romney and Giuliani, the biggest spenders among Republicans,
also proved the other side of the equation, Weissman said: "Could they
get the right message out to the people?"
Romney, who made his wealth as a venture capitalist, reflected
Friday on his decision to tap his wealth. He recalled that his campaign
manager, Beth Myers, advised him that his rivals had spent three
decades building their name recognition.
"If you're going to compete with them, you're going to have to take
something of what you've built over the last 30 years and invest it in
your campaign," he said she told him. "And she was right, I made that
decision, and we therefore built up to a point where I'm now well
recognized and I'm going to get evaluated on a, if you will, level
basis with the other guys."
Campaign officials and various experts said the current state of
the campaign proves that news coverage — earned media in the parlance
of political professionals — can be more determinative than money.
McCain drew on his 2000 experience, revved up his Straight Talk
Express bus and talked and talked to reporters as long as they were
willing to stick it out. He may not have been paying for ads, but he
was showing up on news shows and getting coverage. A comeback story can
be irresistible.
"What's being driven home again in this campaign," Toner said, "is that earned media trumps paid media any time."
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