While President-elect Barack Obama left open the possibility Sunday that Gov. Bill Richardson one day will be a part of his administration, pundits said the cloud of a federal grand jury investigation must dissipate before Richardson's political career can resume its long advance.

Richardson suddenly withdrew as Obama's nominee for Commerce Department secretary, acknowledging the timing of a reported "pay-to-play" probe in New Mexico would cause unwanted distractions as the new Democratic administration seeks U.S. Senate confirmation of its Cabinet.

Obama, already trying to stay out of the fight over a "pay-to-play" scandal involving the governor of his home state of Illinois, will have to come up with a new Commerce nominee as he prepares to deal with an economic crisis and other problems in Washington, D.C.

Richardson, meanwhile, must await the outcome of an ongoing grand jury investigation that reportedly centers on a Beverly Hills, Calif., company's hefty contributions to Richardson political action committees.

CDR Financial Products won state contracts to help arrange financing of New Mexico construction programs in 2004, about the same time CDR executives were making sizable donations to Richardson PACs.

In a news release, Obama said, "Although we must move quickly to fill the void left by Governor Richardson's decision, I look forward to his future service to our country and in my administration."

Richardson, in his own statement, denied any wrongdoing. "Let me say unequivocally that I and my Administration have acted properly in all matters and that this investigation will bear out that fact. But I have concluded that the ongoing investigation also would have forced an untenable delay in the confirmation process."

In a statement Sunday night, CDR CEO David Rubin described Richardson as "an exceptionally able and dedicated public official, who was highly deserving of the opportunity to hold a Cabinet-level position in the new Obama Administration." Rubin also said CDR "adamantly doesn't practice pay-for-play under any circumstance on any playing field."

New Mexico political blogger Joe Monahan, in an interview, called Richardson's withdrawal "a terrible blow — a big, big blow — to his political career. He's under a cloud now and he's going to have to work hard to clear his name."

Said Monahan: "For the first time in Bill Richardson's life, his political future is out of his hands. It's completely dependent upon a federal grand jury and the U.S. justice system. If he gets indicted, obviously his political career is over. If a top aide or aides get indicted, that's not going to be good either."

If the grand jury doesn't return any indictments, "then his chances of rebuilding his political career are better than 50 percent," Monahan predicted. "Both the Obama and Richardson statements today noticeably left the door ajar for a comeback."

Richardson — who represented Northern New Mexico in Congress for multiple terms, served in President Clinton's administration and made an unsuccessful bid for the presidency last year — recently had appeared to be on the cusp of making a return to Washington.

Referring to a written news release from Lt. Gov. Diane Denish on Sunday, Monahan said, "Even the Denish statement they just released refers to Richardson postponing the appointment. That's how they're spinning it."

Monahan predicted Richardson's withdrawal, which NBC News reported Sunday morning, would be a "one-day story" nationally but have a much longer life in New Mexico.

Albuquerque pollster Brian Sanderoff agreed that Richardson's political future is in the hands of federal grand jurors. Not only does Richardson have to avoid being indicted, Sanderoff said, the governor has to pray that none of his close aides get charged with wrongdoing.

"If anyone in his administration is indicted in an alleged pay-to-play case," Sanderoff said, "that's a stain on Richardson's résumé."

Although nobody outside the closed-door grand jury proceedings knows what evidence has been presented, how strong it is or even who might be targeted, Sanderoff noted, "Bill Richardson would never withdraw his name from nomination for anything lightly."

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said Sunday that the grand jury proceeding could have political repercussions not just for Richardson but for others associated with him.

"If Richardson is cleared, it's very likely he'll join the Obama administration at some point after his term as governor ends," Sabato said.

"Obama could be in office for eight years, and Cabinet members and other senior people come and go. So, if Richardson is clean in this, the withdrawal is just a setback and not a finale. If the grand jury finds otherwise, then not only is Richardson in trouble, Denish's likely succession in 2010 is endangered, too — either in a Democratic primary or the general election."

Denish already has announced she's running for governor in 2010 and has raised more than $2 million for that race, in which she could face outgoing U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson, R-N.M., of Albuquerque. Although there's no known evidence Denish was involved in the case under investigation, Rubin has made two contributions totaling $10,000 to Denish, according to the campaign contribution tracking site, www.followthemoney.org.

Rubin's and CDR's contributions of at least $110,000 to Richardson PACs reportedly are at the center of the grand jury investigation. The largest contribution was $75,000 to a Richardson PAC called Si Se Puede!, which paid for the expenses of Richardson and his entourage at the 2004 Democratic National Convention in Boston.

Richardson's written statement was the first time he has directly commented on the grand jury investigation. He apparently has not met with local news reporters since mid-December, when he abruptly left a news conference at the Capitol while ignoring questions about the grand jury.

A senior Obama adviser told The Associated Press on Sunday that before Richardson was nominated, he gave assurances that he would come out fine in the investigation and that the president-elect had no reason to doubt it. But as the grand jury continued to pursue the case, it became clear that confirmation hearings would have to be delayed for six weeks or even longer until the investigation was complete, said the adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity about the discussions because they were private.

Aides to both men insisted Richardson made the decision to withdraw and was not pushed out by Obama. But one Democrat involved in discussions over the matter said transition officials became increasingly nervous during the last couple of weeks that the investigation represents a bigger problem than Richardson had originally indicated.

The New Mexico Finance Authority in 2004 chose CDR as part of a team of consultants who put together a bond-financing deal to create a pool of money dubbed Governor Richardson's Investment Partnership. The $1.6 billion spending program, approved by the Legislature in 2003, includes highway construction projects as well as the establishment of Rail Runner commuter train service in north-central New Mexico.

CDR was paid nearly $1.5 million for its New Mexico work.

The finance authority is a quasi-public agency appointed by the governor that issues bonds and provides other financing to state and local governments for large projects. The body provided bond management services to the state Department of Transportation for the GRIP program.

New Mexican staff writer Kate Nash and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Contact Steve Terrell at 986-3037 or sterrell@sfnewmexican.com. Read his political blog at http://roundhouseroundup.blogspot.com.