After a year of campaigning, raising and spending millions of dollars and, at least in recent months, spending more time in Iowa than in New Mexico, the moment of truth for Gov. Bill Richardson's presidential ambitions is almost upon him.

On Thursday, Iowa voters will gather at firehouses, school gyms, union halls and living rooms throughout the state to chose party nominees for president of the United States.

Richardson promised to outwork all the other Democratic candidates. Judging from the long days and frequent appearances on his public schedules, he has made at least a good faith effort to keep that promise.

Still, it looks like an uphill battle for the governor. Most polls show him in single digits and all show him far behind the front-runners, U.S. Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and former U.S. Sen. John Edwards.

"Richardson tends to perform well. People who meet him seem to like him," Dennis Goldford, a political science professor at Drake University in Des Moines, said in a telephone interview last week.

"However, he's never quite made it to that level of being a top-tier candidate," Goldford said. "I said earlier this year that this is a three-and-a-half person race, with Richardson as that half person. He's never seemed to make it above 10 to 12 percent in the polls. He's always about half or a third of the front-runners' (poll numbers)."

Richardson has staked a lot on Iowa's first-in-the-nation voting. He campaigned more in Iowa than any other state.

According to Nielsen Media Research, Richardson as of October had bought more television and radio commercials in Iowa than anyone else. By mid-November, however, Nielsen reported that Obama and Clinton had spent more on advertising than Richardson.

His schedule is full for the last two days of the campaign.

Today, he has scheduled several New Year "football watch parties" in towns like Pella, Ottumwa, Fairfield, West Burlington and Mount Pleasant. On Wednesday, he has scheduled appearances called "job interviews" — tying in with a series of humorous campaign ads he ran early in the campaign — ín towns all over the state, from Musatine in the southeastern corner to Mason City in the north to Storm Lake in western Iowa and back to Iowa City in the east-central part of the state.

According to the Richardson campaign, the state has some 2,000 organizers, staffers and volunteers, including a few hundred "Road Runners" from New Mexico who have traveled to Iowa at their own expense.

The campaign claims more than [1,800] promises of support for Richardson through pledge cards, phone confirmations and sign-ups gathered door-to-door. "We expect to reach 22,000 by caucus night," campaign manager Dave Contarino wrote in a memo to campaign staff that was released to reporters.

But, according to the Web site Real Clear Politics, the governor's average poll number Monday was just above 6 percent — a distant fourth place behind Obama, Clinton and Edwards, and about 1 percentage point ahead of U.S. Sen. Joe Biden. (The Web site had not averaged in a NBC/McClatchy poll released over the weekend, showing Richardson rising to 12 percent.)

For months, Richardson has said his goal is to be among the top three in Iowa. He's still saying that. But by last week, he seemed to be downplaying that goal, stating he plans to stay in the race until at least Feb. 5, when more than 20 states, including California, Arizona, Colorado, Oklahoma and New Mexico, hold primaries and caucuses.

Last week, Richardson was asked in a CBS News interview whether a fourth place showing in Iowa would finish his campaign.

"It slows it down a little bit," the governor said. "But I'm continuing on to New Hampshire. I feel I need to be in the top three there. Nevada, a Western state, which should be good for me — top three. And then we head into the Feb. 5 primaries"

Bruce Gronbeck, director of the University of Iowa Center for Media Studies and Political Culture, said Richardson "got off to an awfully good start in Iowa. "He was the only governor," Gronbeck said, "And his initial ads were clever and got him a lot of attention. But he ran on his résumé for an awfully long time. He constantly said, 'I can do it because I'm a governor. But he hasn't really gotten around to talking about a range of issues important to the state."

For instance, on the issue of immigration, Gronbeck said, Richardson mostly talked about border issues but didn't talk about immigration problems peculiar to Iowa and other Midwestern states. "He seemed to be playing to the national media that's here and not Iowans," Gronbeck said.

How likely is it that Richardson ends up in the top three in Iowa?

"It almost certainly would take the collapse of one of the (current) top three candidates for Richardson to do that," Goldford said. That's not impossible," he said. "Howard Dean collapsed in 2004."

"I don't see that happening," Dianne Bystrom, a political science professor at Iowa State University, said when asked about the chances of Richardson landing in the top three on caucus night.

A fourth-place finish in Iowa wouldn't necessarily mean Richardson's chances are completely dead, Bystrom said in a telephone interview Friday. But she noted Richardson still is running a distant fourth in upcoming primary states like New Hampshire. Failing to break into the top tier in Iowa won't help him gain ground in these other states.

Though Richardson has consistently run fourth in Iowa polls, Bystrom said, the governor probably should be worried about Biden, who is "nipping at his heels" in some recent polls in her state.

Gronbeck said U.S. Sen. Christopher Dodd's campaign seems to be getting some traction in the eastern part of the state and could threaten Richardson. "That would finish (Richardson)," Gronbeck said.

While many people, including Gronbeck and Bystrom, say Richardson's humorous "job interview" commercials helped him in Iowa, Goldford disagreed. "Richardson's ads, those early ones that were supposed to be job interviews, were just a little too comical," Goldford said.

He said a woman he knows had a 10-year-old daughter watching television when one of those commercials aired. "She said, 'Mom, is that a joke?' It struck a 10-year-old as a joke. You're running for commander in chief, not comedian in chief."

Goldford said Richardson's more recent ads "have been very nice," but they "need more of a bite." The governor hasn't done a good job articulating a theme to his campaign, Goldford said.

"Edwards ran from the left as a populist while Hillary has run from the center, and Obama, talking about change, is running from above. But what is Richardson's theme? I'd be hard-pressed to tell you. Is there a forest there as well as the trees?"

Contact Steve Terrell at 986-3037 or sterrell@sfnewmexican.com.