If there's a canary in the coal mine for climate change in New Mexico, it's the Jemez Mountains.

The mountain range west of Santa Fe saw the biggest average increase in temperature and decrease in moisture since the 1970s, according to a recently released report from The Nature Conservancy.

Those changes likely contributed to a massive piñon and pine forest die-off in the mountains and the severity of the massive 2000 Cerro Grande fire around Los Alamos. "The epicenter of New Mexico climate change appears to be in the Jemez," said Terry Sullivan, state director for The Nature Conservancy.

And it's causing a lot of stress for a small endangered native, the Jemez Mountain salamander.

Other mountain ranges and forests, including the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, have been hard hit by rising temperatures and drier conditions, according to the report. Meanwhile, some areas, like the middle Pecos River basin and northeastern New Mexico grasslands, appear to be least impacted by climate change.

The report, compiled by researchers Carolyn Enquist and Dave Gori, synthesizes other research and direct observations, comparing temperature and precipitation changes in specific geographic locations with documented changes in plant and animal species within the same area. "We were curious to know where is it warmer and drier? Where is it warmer and wetter? All that translates to ecological stresses," said Enquist, a conservation ecologist.

All told, the researchers found 48 cases of observed ecological changes that could be linked to climate change across New Mexico. More than half the changes involved a decline in a species population like the Jemez salamander, an endangered amphibian native to the Jemez Mountains.

With the report, "we can look and say, 'Grasslands and eastern river systems are doing OK,' " Sullivan said. "We don't have to rush in and figure out strategies to save those. On the other hand, upper-elevation woodlands and mountains are just being hammered. That's where we need to invest resources."

The report drives home the fact that impacts from climate change aren't a long way down the road. "We're seeing the changes now," Sullivan said.

The report, "Implications of Recent Climate Change on Conservation Priorities in New Mexico," is the first of three planned by The Nature Conservancy. The second report, due in July, will focus on the impacts of climate change on New Mexico's watersheds. The final report will include climate projections for the state over the next 25 years to 50 years and is due this fall. That work will describe practical adaptation strategies the natural resource managers can use to build on the natural resiliency of New Mexico's ecosystems.

Enquist and Gori, also an ecologist, found 95 percent of New Mexico has experienced a mean temperature increase, but the rise has varied by location and degree. The warming has been greatest in the southwestern, central and northwestern parts of the state from 1970 to 2006. A slight cooling occurred in the Gila River headwaters, the Zuni Mountains and the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.

New Mexico and the Southwest is a region in which severe droughts, highly variable precipitation, forest fires and bark beetle are normal. Climate change makes those occurrences more severe and abrupt, Sullivan said.

When temperature and precipitation patterns change abruptly, wildlife species can't always adapt as quickly or migrate.

The 2002-2003 die-off of thousands of piñons and pine trees around Santa Fe in the Jemez and the Sangre de Cristo Mountains was different from a similar die-off in the 1950s, with more precipitation but much higher temperatures, Enquist said.

Rising temperatures are a bad omen for the Jemez salamander and the Goat Peak pika, a rodent endemic to the Jemez. "Those animals are known to be highly sensitive to even small temperature changes. They are so tightly and uniquely adapted to a range of temperatures, minimum and maximum, and how it can reproduce optimally," Enquist said.

Enquist said some studies indicate whole ecosystems can shift with as little as a .6 degree change in temperature.

According to most scientists, people, who are the increasingly likely culprit in climate-change events, might also be the only hope for survival for climate-sensitive species. Land managers and conservationists face hard choices if the predicted warming, drying trend continues, Enquist said. "Some suggest we need to take a triage approach to species. Prioritize them and decide where to put our limited resources," she said. "It's going to be a real challenge."

Contact Staci Matlock at 470-9843 or smatlock@sfnewmexican.com.


The full report from The Nature Conservancy is available online at www.nmconservation.org/NM_ClimateChange.htm.

Funding for the report was provided by the Public Service Company of New Mexico and the Wildlife Conservation Society.