In the final official reckoning of Santa Fe home sales for 2008,
real-estate agents and others in the industry had something to cheer
about: The median sales price in the city of Santa Fe came in at
$350,000 in the fourth quarter, the same as it was a year ago in the
same time period.
"Overall, the news is good," said Lois Sury, a broker associate
with Sotheby's International Realty and president-elect of the Santa Fe
Association of Realtors.
Home builders, however, say residential construction is drying up.
"If you don't have a client right now, you probably won't get one
right away," said Kim Shanahan, who took over as executive officer of
the Santa Fe Area Home Builders Association in October. "And you'd
better hope you don't have (a house) for sale. If you do, you'll
probably go into bankruptcy" because so few homes are selling.
Home sales were down in the county: The fourth-quarter median sales
price dropped about 22 percent — to $427,500 from $549,125 a year ago —
as did the number of homes sold — to 106 from 132.
The median sales price means an equal number of homes sold for more than the price as sold for less.
Memberships in the Santa Fe Association of Realtors and the Santa
Fe Area Home Builders Association also have dropped, a further
reflection of tough times in real estate. The local market now has
about 150 fewer Realtors and about 100 fewer home builders.
Sury, other SFAR officials and representatives of Wells Fargo Home
Mortgage discussed residential and commercial property statistics at a
Wednesday morning news conference.
"The median sales price (in the city) held steady — that's very
important," Sury said. "Homes and condo sales were off only slightly."
The number of homes sold in the city dropped by 10, to 131 from 141,
while condo sales fell to 70 from 85. The median sales price for condos
was down slightly, to $307,500, from $310,605.
The median sales price is based on sales listed by the SFAR's
Multiple Listing Service, which does not necessarily include every sale
in the area but has been used historically to track trends in the
market.
"The county is still experiencing slower sales and more price
adjustments," Sury said. She also pointed out the inventory of listed
homes remained higher at the end of 2008 than it was at the conclusion
of 2007. SFAR data indicate it will take more than 16 months to absorb
the inventory of residential real estate in Santa Febased
on the number of houses for sale at the end of 2008 — 1,861 were listed
in the city and county in all price ranges on Dec. 31. In 2008, 1,350
homes were sold in the city and county; 1,830 were sold in 2007.
Alan Ball, general manager of Southwestern Title and Escrow and
publisher of a quarterly newsletter dealing with local real estate, is
cautiously optimistic the market might improve a little in the first
quarter of 2009.
"It will be a minor miracle ... if the buy/sell market in Santa Fe
actually picks up during this winter season, but we're going to watch
it quite closely to see if we can discern any movement," Ball said in
his newsletter. Lower interest rates, he added, "will have an effect on
some buyers of homes, mostly in the lower and middle price ranges."
But, he wrote, "the cash buyer is a frequent occurrence in Santa Fe, so low rates will not influence ALL prospective buyers."
Home builders are less optimistic.
"We used to believe that Santa Fe was immune to what happened in
the rest of the world," Shanahan said, "We were unique and could keep
going. But we weren't able to escape the international credit freeze."
The last quarter of 2008 was "more dismal" than the quarter before, he
said.
Shanahan said he had 12 employees in his own company at the
beginning of 2008 and now has none. Santa Fe home builders have been
hit especially hard because many of them build just one house at a
time.
Job losses in the construction industry are virtually unreported.
"That's because a lot of the workers were Mexican nationals who have
gone away," Shanahan said. "Some of them had their own companies, and
they're out of business now."
Until the construction industry revives, "I think a lot of us are
crossing our fingers for (President-elect Barack) Obama's stimulus
package," Shanahan said.
On the commercial front, John Shepler of Grubb and Ellis New Mexico
indicated commercial leasing activity was stagnant in 2008, but he said
his phone has been ringing more in the first weeks of this year.
The big topic for many commercial developers is city limits, which are being redrawn by city and county officials.
And in downtown Santa Fe, Thornburg will relocate to its new
building off N.M. 599 starting later this month, a move that will
vacate between 40,000 and 50,000 square feet of office space. "It will
take some time for the market to readjust to" Thornburg's move, Shepler
said.
He also said Santa Fe's retail industry that serves locals is
"relatively healthy," while downtown and Canyon Road retail "is another
set of dynamics," depending on the disposable income of wealthy
tourists.
Jeff Payne of Wells Fargo said his bank escaped the subprime
problem other lenders experienced and is actively seeking borrowers. At
around 5 percent, interest rates are at their lowest since 1971, Payne
said.
"You do have to have the income and the cash for a down payment," he said.
Contact Bob Quick at 986-3011 or bobquick@sfnewmexican.com.
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