The race for governor likely to be lively, costly
The New Mexican
Posted: Saturday, June 05, 2010
- 6/6/10
     
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Hark — is New Mexico's economic downturn about to upturn on a wave of political-campaign advertising? Will newspapers, radio stations and TV channels become Croesus-rich on out-of-staters' political contributions, and dribble the money down and across the state?

OK, we're exaggerating — but the Diane Denish-Susana Martínez gubernatorial race to November, pretty likely to be a close and lead-changing affair, is certain to draw huge amounts of money, much of it from elsewhere.

Martínez, in the primary campaign's final week, gained nearly half a million dollars from a Texas real-estate developer given to investments in below-the-belt ad campaigns. And even though her latest finance report showed her down to $139,000, the Texas money amounts to a strong start to her fund-raising; more is sure to follow.

Denish, meanwhile, sat on two-and-a-half-million dollars during her unopposed primary campaign. How much of that is from here, and how much from elsewhere? Some of her recent contributors, most in the four-and five-figure range, include corporations and unions capable of raising cash from far and wide.

Both candidates stand to gain support from inside and outside New Mexico's borders — and both are likely to tout their in-state backers more loudly. By the time Nov. 2 approaches, chances are that the two will be up to their necks in political debt to big national interests, so neither will be able to tar the other as sold out to folks who oughtn't be running our state.

With so many primary elections still to be held, it's hard to say where the big national bucks will be aimed as autumn approaches. The nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics notes that campaign expenditures for this year already are more than $2 billion nationwide. Depending on other primaries' outcomes, New Mexico might become a backwater while corporate, union and other big-interest money is invested in states with bigger congressional delegations.

But the gubernatorial contest is sure to be a headliner, with left- and right-wingers in Washington offices realizing that, with enough effort and money, their candidate can win in New Mexico. The general-election outcome might depend on grass-roots organizing and people from all over the state rounding up crowds and knocking on doors — but even that might be run by outside professionals and guided by nationally known consultants.

The New Mexican will do its best to let you know who's seeking to buy or otherwise gain whose influence. It's no easy task in this age of creative accounting — and what makes it tougher is that lots of the big-bucks people hedge their bets by contributing, one way or another, to both general-election opponents.

Before the summer doldrums set in, both top-of-the-ticket candidates are doing their darnedest to boost their images — and tarnish their opponent's. And, much of New Mexico being choice summer-visit territory, expect celebrities — political, show-biz and otherwise — to put in appearances on behalf of Denish or Martínez. In fact, this could be the campaign without a long nap; shots fired for effect from time to time, along with strategically spaced declarations of excellence and impossible-to-keep promises.

Both candidates have history in mind: New Mexico's first woman governor will emerge from this campaign; so might America's first Hispanic woman governor.

Our state's in for an exciting time.


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