To the already full plate of threats faced by endangered species in New Mexico, add one more: climate change.

As if habitat fragmentation, development, predators and dwindling genetic diversity weren't enough to make some species freak out over their survival prospects, consider the warming temperatures scientists attribute to greenhouse-gas emissions such as carbon dioxide. The Rio Grande cutthroat trout, Jemez salamander and doe-eyed Goat Peak pika are among the New Mexico species that will need to adapt or die, according to a new report from the Nature Conservancy.

Predictions on how fast temperatures will climb and how long it will take them to reach critical levels vary, depending on which climate change model is used. The Nature Conservancy, the University of Washington and the University of Southern Mississippi, along with other universities, have developed a software program that can predict a few scenarios (www.climatewizard.org). The Conservancy's new report looks at three scenarios for carbon emissions and what would happen to the state's temperatures under each.

"Under a business-as-usual scenario, it looks like New Mexico would warm by 8.2 degrees (mean annual average temperature)," said Terry Sullivan, executive director of the Nature Conservancy in New Mexico. That increase could take place over several decades, but in the already dry Southwest, even a few degrees of increase can shift the schedule and duration of mountain snowpacks, runoffs and precipitation.

Even with the best scenario, where the U.S. and the rest of the world reduce emissions, New Mexico is looking at an overall 6-degree annual mean temperature rise, Sullivan said.

The Nature Conservancy began a concerted effort to study the impacts of climate change three years ago, he said. "We realized there was a considerable amount of disbelief still that (climate change) is happening. Even when convinced it was going to happen, people thought it was going to be 50 or 100 years down road."

The conservation group hired a climate ecologist who looked for evidence of immediate impacts from climate change on species. "She found 48 documented instances where species had been affected in Arizona and New Mexico," Sullivan said. "It's really difficult to point the finger completely at climate change. There's a lot of other things going on in the landscape. But climate change is definitely a contributing factor."

The 2002-03piñon die-off in the Jemez Mountains because of a beetle infestation is one example, Sullivan said. Fire suppression had allowed the forests to become uncharacteristically thick. Drought weakened the trees. Higher nighttime temperatures because of climate change gave the beetles a boost. "Beetles are part of the natural system, but we will see more episodes like that as temperatures increase and precipitation changes," Sullivan said.

Studies have found the peak runoff from snowmelt is occurring seven to 10 days earlier than in prior decades. An earlier snowmelt can impact spawning of fish such as the Rio Grande cutthroat trout. The faster snowmelt also means snow is spending less time lounging on mountain tops and recharging aquifers.

Some foresters also are predicting bigger, badder wildfires because of overgrown forests and climate change, leaving behind scorched earth that dumps sediment into river and harms fish habitat.

"Really, the message is that it will create a whole new background for our species, that they will have to adapt to or cease to exist," Sullivan said.

What kinds of species are most impacted? Those that survive in a limited, specific habitat could have more problems. Those with populations split up and isolated from each other also are in more trouble, as are those already struggling to regain a foothold on survival. Species that are hypersensitive to change may also fare badly, like the desert topminnow in Arizona: Minute temperature changes can shift the sex ratio to more males than females, according to a 2008 study. A fish like the Rio Grande cutthroat might withstand higher temperature shifts without dying out, but fisheries biologists still aren't sure what a long-term or sudden shift could mean to the species' biology and recovery.

Wildlife and land managers are putting their focus on what could be done to help endangered species weather whatever is in store with climate. These so called "ecosystem-based adaptation strategies" includestrategies like thinning dense forests to more natural states, so more snow can reach the ground. "When snow is caught up in the branches, it evaporates more quickly," Sullivan said, noting recent studies conducted at the Valles Caldera National Preserve.

Ken Cunningham, assistant chief of research and management for the fisheries division of the state Department of Game and Fish, said the agency is trying to improve fish habitat regardless of what climate change means. "A lot of climate models are based on air temperature," he said. "There isn't always a direct correlation with water temperature."

The agency and volunteers have restored three creeks and stocked them with native Rio Grande cutthroats. "The ones we did last year seem to be working," he said, noting non-native fish remain the biggest threat to the natives.

Creating wildlife corridors is another solution for saving some species, said Jose Viramontes, spokesman for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in Albuquerque. Migration corridors allow species to move to higher or lower elevations or find new habitat as necessary, Viramontes said. "But if habitat is not there, or they run into a city in the middle of it, or some other barrier, that limits their ability to adapt as quickly," he explained.

Contact Staci Matlock at 986-3055 or smatlock@sfnewmexican.com.