Just days into the 2011 fiscal year, there's no agreement on just how the state budget for the next 12 months is shaping up, which will determine whether New Mexico faces more spending cuts and, eventually, the possibility of more tax hikes.

Rep. Lucky Varela, D-Santa Fe, says state government is looking at an estimated revenue deficit of $80 million. But Gov. Bill Richardson said he is waiting for consensus figures to come out later this summer.

"There has to be a unanimous agreement on the budget estimates and my economists have not performed that," he said. "So those are his figures."

Varela, who chairs the Legislative Finance Committee, said he hopes the projections get better. But at the moment, it looks like more cuts will have to be made.

"Even after the tax increases that passed, it seems we're going to be short by about $80 million," Varela said.

And, Varela said, future cuts are up to Richardson, who this year was given authority by the Legislature to make more agency spending cuts.

"We can't raise taxes between now and January, and the governor needs to recognize that. We want the administration to act promptly."

The state's 2011 fiscal year started Thursday. The 2010 fiscal year ended June 30 with a revenue deficit of about $40 million, Varela said.

Already, agencies including the Human Services Department are bracing for shortfalls, including in the Medicaid program. Other agencies are also worried about how to make up for the stimulus funds that run out in 2011.

One thing state employee union members hope Richardson and lawmakers don't do to save money is add more furloughs for state workers, who have already have been forced to take five days of unpaid time off since last fall.

"Obviously, if things don't turn around, the economy doesn't bounce back and revenues stay down and the (federal economic stimulus money) dries up, then of course furloughs and layoffs is something that our guys are always concerned about," said Josh Anderson, political coordinator for the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Council 18.

A Richardson spokesman said additional furloughs aren't being discussed because the administration is waiting on new revenue projections. He also said the governor is waiting on the so-called consensus estimates before considering cuts.

"I'm not going to comment on guesswork from nervous legislators," Richardson spokesman Gilbert Gallegos said in a statement. "Governor Richardson will wait for consensus revenue projections determined by economists before considering any further budget action."

While the budget situation is still unpleasant, it could be worse, if it weren't for a recent pickup in oil and gas revenues, Varela said.

"Oil and gas has really been a lifesaver," he said. "It seems to be recovering. We're hoping that will continue to offset some of the loss we're seeing in the gross receipts taxes and the personal income and corporate taxes."

An uptick in oil and gas prices is key for a state that's so reliant on those revenues. Oil was trading at almost $72 a barrel Friday — an improvement over the days when it was $50 a barrel and the state was in even more financial pain.

Lawmakers for months have puzzled over what else to cut. A task force plans to meet again in July to discuss ideas for a more efficient government.

Some say Richardson earlier this year shouldn't have axed a food tax that would have brought in $68 million to help with the budget crunch. The governor has defended that move, and did sign other bills that will generate about $170 million in tax increases.

To drum up some extra cash, the state until Sept. 30 is offering residents a chance to fess up about unpaid back taxes and avoid the penalties and interest owed. Officials hope the program, which doesn't forgive the taxes owed, will net the state about $7 million. Already, 200 people have signed up.

At the same time, the state once again will forgo some tax revenue during the back-to-school shopping season. The tax holiday is scheduled for the weekend of Aug. 6-8.

Those taxes are no small change: From 2005 to 2008, the state gave up $16.7 million in revenue during such tax holidays, according to the Taxation and Revenue Department.

Meanwhile, the Motor Vehicle Division, part of the tax department, on Friday permanently closed its Cottonwood Mall branch in Albuquerque to save money.

Fifteen employees there will be reassigned to other offices.

That move is expected to save the division about $125,000, just 10 percent of the budget cut it was dealt this session, a spokesman said.

In addition, all state-run MVD offices starting July 12 will close at 3:30 instead of 4 p.m. to save $105,000 a year in overtime costs.

Contact Kate Nash at 986-3036 or knash@sfnewmexican.com Read her blog at www.greenchilechatter.com.