A new poll shows that either U.S. Rep. Tom Udall, D-N.M., or Gov. Bill Richardson easily would win a Senate race against either U.S. Rep. Heather Wilson or U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce if the election were held now, although Udall and Richardson have said they will not run for the seat being vacated by Sen. Pete Domenici, R-N.M.

However, the same poll shows that Pearce, who has not announced whether he'll seek the Republican nomination, would win comfortably over other possible Democratic contenders, including Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez — who is expected to announce his candidacy today — former state Attorney General Patricia Madrid and Santa Fe developer Don Wiviott.

Wilson, who announced her candidacy Friday, has 4 more percentage points than either Chavez or Madrid. But numbers for those possible races are within the poll's margin of error.

Wilson would beat Chavez by 4 percentage points, according to the poll. Eight percent are undecided, while the margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percent.

The Madrid/Wilson matchup — which would be a rematch of last year's close and contentious race in Congressional District 1 — is even closer. Wilson is ahead here by only 1 percentage point, with 9 percent undecided.

Wiviott, a political newcomer who has yet to start an advertising campaign, can take some solace in the fact that his poll numbers show a large undecided vote — 15 percent in the match with Wilson, 20 percent with Pearce.

The poll didn't ask about other major candidates — Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, a Democrat, and Land Commissioner Pat Lyons, a Republican — who have expressed an interest in the Senate race.

The poll shows a surge of support for Domenici, who announced last week he would not seek a seventh term next year because of health problems. Less than a month ago, a SurveyUSA poll showed Domenici's approval rating sinking to 41 percent — the lowest his numbers have been in the two years since the company began its monthly tracking polls. The new poll, conducted of 625 New Mexico adults over the weekend, showed a 59 percent approval rating for the state's senior senator, higher than his approval numbers have been in eight months.

"This may be in sympathy for a medical condition that the Senator revealed, or it may be a reflection of constituents approving of the Senator's decision to step down," a memo from the pollster to KOB said. Domenici announced his decision Thursday, one day before the new poll commenced.

Despite their large margins in the poll, staffers for both Udall and Richardson say there's no chance of either changing his mind about running for Senate.

"As Congressman Udall said last week, he has every reason to believe he could be the next senator from New Mexico," said Udall spokeswoman Marissa Padilla. "These numbers certainly show that. However, right now Tom Udall feels he can best serve New Mexicans by continuing to increase in seniority in the House of Representatives as a member of the Appropriations Committee."

Richardson spokesman Tom Reynolds also said the poll numbers wouldn't cause the governor to reconsider. "We are going to win the Democratic nomination and be the next president of the United States," Reynolds said.

A spokesman for Pearce said the poll would not influence Pearce's decision. "Mr. Pearce has never made a decision based on polls, and I find it highly unlikely that he would start now," Brian Phillips said.

In other news concerning the fallout over the Domenici decision:

• Chavez said Monday that he will announce his decision at a news conference today in Albuquerque. He declined to say what his decision will be. However, The Associated Press, citing "a source close to the campaign who sought anonymity so as not to pre-empt the mayor's formal announcement," said Ch & aacute;vez will announce his candidacy.
• Wilson's campaign announced Monday that the congresswoman has at least $754,000 in cash on hand as of the end of last month. This is money she has raised for a re-election campaign to the U.S. House of Representatives, but which now will be transferred to a new Senate campaign fund.
• Albuquerque oil man Spiro Vassilopoulos, 54, said he will run in the GOP Senate primary. Vassilopoulos several months ago told state Republican leaders he was interested in running for the seat. He said Monday that he thought then Domenici might not run for the office next year.
• Michelle Lujan Grisham, who has worked as health secretary for Richardson, said Sunday that she is considering running for Wilson's seat in Congress. Albuquerque City Councilor Martin Heinrich already has announced he's seeking the Democratic nomination for that seat while state Rep. Al Park, D-Albuquerque, said last week he's considering running. On the Republican side, both Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White and state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones have said they are considering the race.

Contact Steve Terrell at 986-3037 or sterrell@sfnewmexican.com.