ALBUQUERQUE — New Mexico's population is getting older, and that could mean changes in everything from housing to medical care.

"There's almost nothing you can think of that won't be affected by the aging of the population, even attendance at sporting events, consumption patterns, import patterns," said Jim Peach, regents professor of economics at New Mexico State University in Las Cruces. "Age is a powerful influence on the kind of products we buy, the kind of services we demand, the whole spectrum of economic things and social things."

The Census Bureau estimates New Mexico will age at a higher rate than most other states over the next few decades, predicting it will go from having one of the lowest percentages of senior citizens to having one of the highest by 2030, said demographer Brian Sanderoff of Albuquerque.

According to 2010 census figures released early today, the percentage of New Mexico's population over age 65 rose to 13.2 percent from 11.7 percent in the previous census. Some 28.2 percent of New Mexico's population is age 19 and younger, down from 31.1 percent the previous decade.

The economic significance of this shift will be difficult to overstate, according to Peach.

"When you look at the whole package, aging changes everything," he said.

Peach said an older population would affect:

• Medical care, since people in their 60s have different needs from those in their 20s. "We know that we spend a huge proportion on lifetime medical expenditures in the last year of life."

• The labor force, with participation in the job market beginning to drop off about age 55.

• Future population growth, because of fewer people in their prime fertility years or moving from location to location. "You're much more likely to be a migrant in your 20s than any other time. By age 65 or so, migration rates just drop precipitously."

• Crime rates, since older people commit fewer crimes. "Some policymaker's going to get a lot of credit for reducing the crime rate, but a 70-year-old is much less likely hold up a Pick Quick than a 20-year-old."

• The housing market. "Once the kids are gone, a lot of people downsize," and many older people live in condos, assisted-living facilities and the like rather than in single-family houses.

• Education. In the 1960s, baby boomers were going through the school system, but education is not a growth industry anymore. In addition, higher education will be impacted by fewer young people and the state's higher dropout rate.

An older population also could affect election participation.

Sanderoff said older adults historically vote at higher rates than do young adults. "As New Mexico ages, we could speculate, holding all other things equal ... voter participation levels should also rise," he said.

However, only time will tell if other trends — voter apathy, voter cynicism or campaign efforts to get out the vote — transcend the tendency for older voters to participate at higher rates, he said.

Some 38.6 percent of New Mexico households counted in 2000 had children under age 18; in the 2010 census, the percentage was 33.7. At the same time, the number of households with people over age 65 grew from 22.4 percent in 2000 to 25.3 percent in 2010.

The proportion of seniors compared to people of traditional working age will continue to increase in New Mexico and the nation over the next 20 years, Sanderoff said.

"The proportion of adults who are receiving social benefits such as Social Security and Medicare will continue to rise, while the proportion of working people who pay into these programs through payroll deductions will drop" as the large baby boomer population moves into retirement, he said.

That will require a significant increase in services for the elderly, Sanderoff said.

"As we age, we need to provide more services — nursing homes, in-home care, more physicians and hospitals to serve a population that tends to need more health care," he said.

New Mexico's median age in 2010 was 36.7 years, up from 34.6 in 2000, the Census Bureau said.

That median age is not much different from that of the nation as a whole, which was estimated at 36.8 in the census' 2009 American Community Survey, Peach said. The Census Bureau plans to release the 2010 national median age at the end of May.

In 1960, Peach said, New Mexico's median age was 22.9, compared to 29.5 for the nation. In 1980, the state's median age was 27.4 and the nation's was 30. By 1990, New Mexico's median age was 31.3; the U.S. median age was 32.9.

"We're closing that gap pretty quickly," he said.



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