Final push to Super Tuesday

Obama, Clinton supporters look to keep up the intensity for Democratic caucus

Steve Terrell and Kate Nash | The New Mexican

2/2/2008 - 2/2/08

Recent visits to the state by Democratic candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton — as well as well-publicized appearances in the state by former President Bill Clinton, campaigning for his wife, and Sen. Edward Kennedy, stumping for Obama — have stirred up excitement for Tuesday's New Mexico Democratic Caucus.

However, the intensity of the campaign is nothing like that of the 2004 Democratic Caucus — the first year in which Democrats held a presidential caucus.

Though there's no surefire way to predict the turnout, Albuquerque pollster Brian Sanderoff of Research & Polling Inc. said one good barometer is absentee ballot requests.

Laura Sanchez, executive director of the state Democratic Party, said there were about 5,500 requests for absentee ballots.

In contrast, by late January 2004, there were almost 30,000 absentee requests and more than 23,600 completed ballots that had been returned. Sanchez said Friday that she didn't know how many absentee voters had sent in their ballots this year.

'04 versus '08

During the 2004 election cycle, candidates John Kerry, Wesley Clark, Howard Dean, John Edwards and Dennis Kucinich made several visits to the state.

In the summer of 2003, Dean held a rally on the Santa Fe Plaza that attracted hundreds of supporters. In September of that year, all candidates but Rev. Al Sharpton came to Albuquerque for a debate. Kerry read to children at a South Valley day-care center. Sen. Joe Lieberman held court at the Barelas Coffee House. In the days before the caucus, Clark held a huge event in Santa Fe at the Inn at Loretto, where former Lt. Gov. Roberto Mondragón grabbed a guitar and led supporters in choruses of "De Colores" while waiting for the general to arrive. Kucinich led followers in a ritual involving Indian dancers and incense in the Rotunda of the Roundhouse.

But this year it's been different.

"In 2004, we had the bright idea to move the primary up from June, to early February," Sanderoff said. "Back then, we were one of the few states to have it that early. Candidates paid a lot of attention to New Mexico, they bought a lot of television ads here. New Mexicans got turned on to the campaign and turned out to vote."

But this year, Sanderoff noted, states like Iowa and New Hampshire moved their primaries even earlier. Plus several states moved their primaries to the first Tuesday in February — 22 in all. "We got lost in the shuffle," Sanderoff said. "Many New Mexicans don't even realize we're having a Democratic caucus."

Several of the Feb. 5 states are big ones — California being the biggest prize with 441 delegates at stake. Sen. Hillary Clinton's home base, New York (281 delegates) also has its primary that day, as does Sen. Barack Obama's home state of Illinois (185 delegates). New Mexico is one of the smaller Feb. 5 states. This state has only 38 delegates to the Democratic National Convention. Only 26 of those will be selected by caucus voters.

Another huge factor in New Mexico's less visible role is Gov. Bill Richardson's aborted presidential candidacy.

While Richardson was in the race, everyone assumed that, as the favorite son, he would carry the state by a wide margin, Sanderoff said. He conducted a poll for the Albuquerque Journal last fall showing Richardson with an insurmountable lead. "No other candidate wanted to waste money or time on New Mexico when Richardson was in," Sanderoff said. Indeed, last year the only other candidate to visit New Mexico was Kucinich, who appeared in Albuquerque in October.

But when Richardson dropped out last month following single-digit performances in Iowa and New Hampshire, the territory opened up. Clinton and Obama started opening campaign headquarters and buying television spots here.

But that just happened last month.

The Clinton edge

Sanderoff noted that he hasn't done any polls since Richardson dropped out, so there's no scientific way to predict Tuesday's results.

But Sanderoff said he believes Clinton could have an edge with Hispanic voters. He noted in the Nevada caucus last month that Clinton won the Hispanic vote by a 2-1 margin.

University of New Mexico political science professor Christine Sierra said that, of the two Democrats, Clinton has more connections to the state's political infrastructure.

"Clinton probably has the advantage among Hispanics in New Mexico simply because I think Obama is less better known," Sierra said. "Hillary is more familiar, but that could change by voting day."

Another UNM political science professor, Lonna Atkeson, did a study of 2004 Democratic caucus-goers in the state showing Hispanics tended to identify themselves more as party members and tended to be more conservative than non-Hispanic caucus-goers.

"Hillary Clinton early on was identified as the favorite of the party establishment," Atkeson said in an interview last week. "And she's seen as more conservative than Obama. So it makes sense that Hispanics would tend to support her."

Sen. Phil Griego, D-San Jose, who has endorsed Clinton, said Hispanic Northern New Mexico Democrats are split between the two candidates. "The Hillary campaign will regenerate the Hispanic northern community in the fashion he (Bill Clinton) did when he ran for president."

"Up in my area, the San Miguel and Taos area, the Hillary campaign has really gained a lot of momentum," Griego said.

But Sen. James Taylor, D-Albuquerque, another Clinton supporter, said Hispanics can't be put into one candidate's group.

"A Northern New Mexico Hispanic is different from a Southern New Mexico Hispanic," he said. "And Hispanics, even within those groups, have their own issues, their own needs, their own desires from the candidates. I think you're going to see Hispanics supporting both of them strongly."

Obama supporter Rep. Peter Wirth, D-Santa Fe, said in an interview Friday, "From a Santa Fe perspective, I believe this is Barack Obama country. Folks I talk to are interested in changing the status quo, to have a party to be for the people instead of the special interests. As I campaign door to door, people tell me they want a government that really represents them."

Despite the absentee ballot requests for the caucus being a fraction of the 2004 requests, Wirth and Rep. Al Park, D-Albuquerque, who also is campaigning for Obama, predicted a big turnout Tuesday by new voters and young voters excited about Obama.

Wirth took a jab at national media pundits. "We've seen Tim Russert and Wolf Blitzer wanting to tell people how they're supposed to think. But the voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina have surprised them. Obama won Iowa and South Carolina, while Clinton won New Hampshire and Nevada. The key is turnout."

Park noted that in South Carolina, the total turnout for Democrats in 2004 was about 290,000. However last month Obama's total alone was about 294,000.

"What you see is a real effort of people trying to take back their government," Park said. "Obama's message is resonating with Democratic voters. People sense a historical moment, and they want to be part of it."

Contact Steve Terrell at 986-3037 or sterrell@sfnewmexican.com.

Kate Nash at 986-3036 or knash@sfnewmexican.com.