The national pundits virtually have declared the New Mexico U.S. Senate race between Tom Udall and Steve Pearce to be over.

Recent polls and other indicators such as campaign finance reports don't do much to dispute the conclusion that in this election cycle, which seems stacked in favor of the Democrats, Udall has a clear, perhaps unstoppable lead over Republican Pearce.

Both candidates are congressmen, Udall representing the Northern 3rd District, Pearce representing the more conservative Southern 2nd District.

Each is strong with his respective political base. Udall, who comes from a politically prominent family, has strong progressive credentials. He's a staunch environmentalist who voted against the war in Iraq and against the U.S. Patriot Act. Pearce is an unapologetic conservative who has backed the war and has been a strong advocate of more domestic oil drilling and more nuclear energy. The voting record of the two provides a neat contrast on almost every major issue.

In this election year, however, Republicans are suffering, thanks to the economic nosedive and the unpopularity of President Bush.

"The Land of Enchantment can also be the land of tight contests, but not this year," wrote Larry Sabato, director of the Virginia Center for Politics early this month. He referred to Pearce's primary opponent, Heather Wilson, saying, "Republicans took a wrong turn in their June 3rd primary by nominating the conservative Pearce over the moderate Wilson. ... Wilson might have been able to capitalize on her gender and more centrist record against Udall. Pearce has little but hard conservatism to sell in a year when it isn't particularly appealing here. ... Pearce will need a miracle to win."

Washington Post political blogger Chris Cillizza agrees Wilson might have provided a closer race. But "it's hard to imagine either Republican winning in this climate," he wrote Oct. 10.

"No one disputes that Democrats will pick up the open seats in Virginia and New Mexico," Charlie Cook wrote bluntly in his Oct. 14 "Off to the Races" column in The National Journal.

What's at stake is not just who will occupy the seat held for the past 36 years by Republican Pete Domenici, who is retiring at the end of his term. National Democrats see each contested seat as a building block in constructing a filibuster-proof Senate, which along with a Democratic-controlled House of Representatives and a Democrat in the White House would mean pretty clear sailing for the Democratic agenda.

On the other hand, even if Barack Obama wins the White House and the Democrats maintain their control in the House, the Senate could remain a stumbling block for Democratic initiatives if Senate Democrats can't stave off a filibuster.

The magic number is 60 for Senate Democrats, who currently number 51, to cut off debate on the Senate floor. Most observers still believe it's unlikely Democrats will meet that goal — but it's no longer impossible.

"For the next two weeks, panicky conservatives no doubt will invoke the number 60 with a dread once reserved for 666," Bruce Reed, a former adviser to President Clinton, wrote last week on Slate magazine's Web site. He goes on to explain that the Democrats don't necessarily need 60 members if they can appeal to moderate Republicans for support on specific issues.

National Democrats, such as New York Sen. Chuck Schumer, actively recruited Udall to run and discouraged possible primary opponents such as Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chávez.

Chávez's withdrawal, just a few weeks after he announced his candidacy, ensured Udall would not have to endure a bruising primary like Pearce's heated GOP contest with Wilson.

At first, the Democrats were hoping Udall would flip Domenici's Republican seat to their column. Now, as that magic number of 60 seems more obtainable, the national Dems are depending on it.

Polls have not been kind to Pearce. According to most polling companies, Udall has led by double digits for the past year. Shortly after the primary, the Rasmussen Report had Udall up by 28 percentage points. In early September, according to Rasmussen, that lead had shrunk to 7 percentage points. Soon, however, the tide seemed to turn against Pearce. This was in mid-September, about the time the stock market began to seriously tank.

By early October, Udall's lead was back up to double digits. By the middle of the month, Real Clear Politics, averaging three polls, had Udall leading Pearce 55 percent to just under 38 percent.

Even before his poll numbers started going down again, Pearce suffered a blow when the National Republican Senatorial Committee decided to pull the plug on buying $2.3 million in television commercials for the New Mexico Republican.

It was a bad development for Pearce, who consistently has trailed Udall in fundraising. In the most recent campaign finance reports, Pearce had raised about $4 million for the campaign compared to the $5.9 million. Udall had raised. The Udall campaign, as of Sept. 30, had just under $2 million cash on hand, nearly four times Pearce's total.

Contact Steve Terrell at 986-3037 or sterrell@sfnewmexican.com.