Campaign remains upbeat, despite the odds
Polls show the governor remains far back from the front-runners

Steve Terrell | The New Mexican
Posted: Saturday, January 05, 2008
- 1/6/08
     
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MANCHESTER, N.H. — The streets of New Hampshire are alive with politics on the weekend before Tuesday's primary.

On Elm Street in downtown Manchester, supporters of Barack Obama have commandeered the corner near the Verizon Wireless Arena, waving placards at passing motorists. Just up the street there's an even larger contingent of Hillary Clinton supporters. Elsewhere on Elm Street, Dennis Kucinich's backers are making their stand in front of the Merrimack Restaurant. And there are small pockets of support for Republicans Mitt Romney and Ron Paul. There's even a few guys with signs for Democrat Mike Gravel. And up in Concord, near the state Capitol, a reporter walking a couple of blocks to a coffee shop was buttonholed by two different supporters of GOP candidate John McCain.

But, except for a rally at a college in Concord on Saturday morning, the campaign for Gov. Bill Richardson seems almost invisible.

There are not even any Richardson signs along the stretch of Union Street, a heavily Hispanic Manchester neighborhood, where Richardson campaigned last summer. "Most of the people here seem to be for Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama," said Sandra Sepulveda, owner of the Don Quijote restaurant, where Richardson spoke in June.

Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire in Durham, N.H., was blunt when asked Saturday about Gov. Bill Richardson's chances in the primary.

"Pretty close to zero," he said.

"It's been a difficult year for little-known (Democratic) candidates to get a break given the big three," Scala said. "Richardson had been making some headway here against Edwards. But then he put all his eggs in Iowa." Scala said that also was the problem for other second-tier candidates like Sens. Joe Biden and Chris Dodd.

Polls in New Hampshire taken after Richardson's thumping in the Iowa caucuses last week back up Scala's assessment.

The latest poll of state Democrats and independents by the New Hampshire-based American Research Group shows Richardson at 3 percent. He's tied in this poll with former Alaska Sen. Mike Gravel, who has been running an extremely low-budget campaign and hasn't been included in recent debates televised nationally.

The news on the Real Clear Politics Web site, which keeps averages of several recent polls, is slightly more kind to Richardson. There, his poll average is 5 percent — about where he was just before the Iowa caucuses, where he ended up with only 2 percent of the Democratic delegates.

But Richardson retains a loyal group of supporters here, as evidenced by the crowd of about 100 who showed up at the New Hampshire Technical Institute in Concord. The candidate, who has been known to be flat and meandering in some speeches, was on top of his game at the rally. Speaking without notes, he spoke clearly and passionately. And the crowd responded enthusiastically as he promised to end the war in Iraq, establish universal health care and protect the environment.

"We made the final four!" Richardson said, spinning his distant fourth-place finish in Iowa.

"Go after 'em," one woman shouted.

Richardson laughed. "We might."

Dick Bouley, a lobbyist and consultant who co-chairs Richardson's New Hampshire campaign, said after the speech that the Iowa results were disappointing. But he said he didn't know if Iowa would affect Richardson's performance in New Hampshire.

"Gov. Richardson has some very dedicated supporters," Bouley said. "Hopefully we'll get 15 percent or higher."

Bouley said Richardson is hoping to get the votes of supporters of Dodd and Biden, who dropped out after Iowa. Like Richardson, both are longtime members of Congress with experience in foreign policy. However, both senators were polling even lower than Richardson in New Hampshire.

"Things are in such flux," Bouley said. "I think Hillary's really falling. And there's no question Obama has got a lot of people excited. But I think a lot of people haven't made up their minds."

Butch Maki — a longtime Richardson supporter who runs a major New Mexico lobbying firm, though he now lives in his native New Hampshire — said Saturday that he was disappointed with Richardson's results in Iowa.

"I got so many reports from precincts in Iowa where we missed viability by one, two, three, four (votes)," Maki said. In the Iowa caucuses, if candidates don't receive 15 percent of the first-ballot vote in the individual precincts, they are deemed "nonviable" and don't receive delegates. Supporters of the nonviable candidates have a second chance to realign with viable candidates.

Thus, Maki said, Richardson's true level of support in Iowa was much higher than his delegate count would indicate.

He predicted Richardson would do much better in New Hampshire, adding, "We've got to do better than 2 percent."

Contact Steve Terrell at 986-3037 or sterrell@sfnewmexican.com.






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