ALBUQUERQUE — Smart-growth advocates say the nation's current economic turmoil is caused by urban sprawl, particularly too many suburban homes that lost their value as Americans demand more housing closer to work, stores and restaurants and schools.

That's bad for the country, but could turn out to be a positive development for those who support smart-growth concepts because demand is shifting to new urban developments.

Organizers of the 8th Annual New Partners for Smart Growth conference held in Albuquerque this week say they believe this type of development — which encourages cities built for walking, biking and public transport, homes near retail areas, schools and workplaces and green building techniques — say they think the Mountain West region is poised to grow differently than it has in the past.

Judy Corbett, executive director of the Sacramento, Calif.-based Local Government Commission, which sponsored the conference, said economic and environmental crises and the election of President Barack Obama are all driving communities to embrace smart growth principals now more than ever.

"I feel like there's a realization that things have to change because of crisis and there's an openness to change that I have never seen before," said Corbett, who's been working in the field since 1975. "It's an incredibly exciting time."

The Mountain West region, where 86 percent of the population lives in urban areas, offers the best opportunity for smart growth "because it is growing so fast," said Robert Grow, senior counsel for O'Melveny & Myers LLP in Salt Lake City.

Five megalopolitan areas in the Mountain West — the Front Range from the Denver area to Colorado Springs; the Sun Corridor from Phoenix to Tucson; Albuquerque, Santa Fe and Taos; the Salt Lake City area; and the Las Vegas, Nev., area, which spills into southern Utah — will be the driving economic forces of the region.

From 2005 to 2040, the population will nearly double to nearly 27 million people in these five metro areas, said Arthur C. Nelson, a professor and director of metropolitan research at the University of Utah.

That means 7 million homes will be constructed, 9.4 billion square feet of nonresidential buildings will be needed and full- and part-time jobs will more than double from 7.6 million to 15.7 million during this time, he said.

With that growth will come changes in how communities are built. The era of single-family homes in disconnected cul-de-sacs that require long commutes is passing, as evidenced by the current economic crisis, conference speakers said.

From 2001-2008, production of single-family homes overshot demand, Nelson said.

That excess demand caused Americans to lose $2 trillion in 2008 in dropping home values, which Nelson said he thinks mainly occurred in suburban areas on the edges of cities.

Part of what's driving Americans to flee suburbia is that fewer people are having children and the population is aging. In the 1960s, half of American families had children, but that figure will drop to one quarter of the population by 2040, Nelson said.

"We are at the cusp of a fundamental change in the housing dynamics in this country, and we're not aware of it," Nelson said. "A large part of it is driven by the impending baby boom population beginning to sell homes, moving to attached products and rental products."

Between now and 2020, to meet emerging housing demands, half of all new homes built will have to be rental units, Nelson said.

Nelson's solution? For cities like Albuquerque, he proposes converting dead strip malls into multiple-family housing, which would be near transportation routes and other stores. Such development also would be good for neighbors whose property backs onto ugly strip malls with vacant parking lots, he said.

"The dead mall is our future. Embrace it," he said.

Smart-growth planners also envision more residential homes built over shops and restaurants near transportation centers — along light rail lines, for example. More people will live in multifamily housing and rental units. Streets will accommodate pedestrians, bicyclists and public transportation. Open spaces will be preserved. And, green building techniques will be valued.

The benefits of smart growth could include healthier people since they would spend less time in their cars, and fewer cars would be good for the environment. People living closer together, rather than sprawling out into farmland, will bring locally grown produce closer to cities and will make public transit economically viable.

Nelson said he believes up to three-quarters of all buildings replaced will be built using green principals.

"The private sector will pay more rent for a green building than a regular building because they actually save money over time," he said.

Alex Kelter, who works on public health for the Local Government Commission, said he's cautious when it comes to smart growth because he believes the ideas have to be accepted by local and regional governments and the public.

"The Obama wave or movement bodes well for that, but it doesn't guarantee it," Kelter said.




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