If you want to blame something for the recent reduction in those wonderfully cooling afternoon monsoon rains, then take a look up.

There's a high-pressure system in the sky, centered over New Mexico, blocking moisture from entering the Land of Enchantment, said Tim Shy, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Albuquerque.

"That very large ridge of high pressure is cutting off the moisture pattern from the south, which is where our monsoon clouds generally come from," Shy said.

Still, the temporary lack of rain is no reason to panic — and it doesn't mean that the monsoons are over.

There's just a natural ebb and flow to the season that people sometimes forget after a few uncomfortably hot sunny days, Shy said.

"Going through periods where there is not much rain during monsoon season is normal," Shy said. "What we want to happen, though, is for that high-pressure system to move east to Texas. If there's any way we could get the Texans to agree to take it, well, that would be a perfect world."

Even with the moisture patterns blocked, the monsoon trend of scattered thunderstorms over mountain areas will probably continue, with somewhere between a 10 percent to 20 percent chance for precipitation in those areas on any given afternoon.

"The unfortunate thing for Santa Fe, though, is that those storms tend to form to the mountains east of you, and as they move they tend to move away from town," Shy said.

So far, July has been a good month for precipitation in the City Different. Average precipitation through July 12 is generally about 0.53 inches, and by that day this year, Santa Fe had received 0.67 inches, Shy said.

"We're actually running about a 10th above normal," Shy said.

The high-pressure system will probably prevent July from being a record-breaker, and might leave the state slightly short of average precipitation for the month. But there is some hope looking at the historical record, Shy said.

"Historically there's usually a dip in mid-July, and then the wet weather restarts at the end of the month," Shy said. "And if that doesn't happen, there's also generally a big uptick around the 10th or 11th of August."

Temperatures also might feel a bit high, but they're actually about average for this, the hottest time of the year, Shy said.

Generally, the average daily temperature in Santa Fe for mid-July is the upper 80s or low 90s.

"Nothing is really jumping out of the record for that," Shy said.

Temperatures start to drop by Aug. 10 or so, he added.

And even if the high-pressure ridge remains over New Mexico for the next few weeks, it doesn't mean the rest of July will be completely dry, Shy said.

"If I were a betting person, I'd look forward to at least some additional precipitation in July," Shy said.

Contact Sue Vorenberg at svorenberg@sfnewmexican.com.