ESPAÑOLA — Voters like Michael Loya and Rita Ortiz keep New Mexico swinging back and forth from blue to red in presidential elections.

Loya remains undecided whether he'll support Democrat Barack Obama or Republican John McCain. He's an independent, the fastest growing segment of the electorate and a group that could well determine who wins the state's five electoral votes. Ortiz is a Democrat but occasionally breaks party ranks. This year, she's for McCain.

Abortion is a dominant issue for Ortiz, a 51-year-old social worker from Española, a Democratic stronghold in Northern New Mexico that's critical for Obama. Hispanics account for almost 85 percent of the population.

"I think everything is about morals," says Ortiz. "That's how I look at my party. I don't look at Democrat or Republican. I look at moral issues. I balance them out and I see who's for what. I am pro-life."

Loya wants to hear specifics from the candidates on how they'll revive the nation's economy and restore the housing and credit markets.

"The people are really pretty damn smart. We pay attention to the bottom line because we have to put food on the table. When you start paying attention to the bottom line you just don't want to hear sound bites about Main Street," says Loya, 54, a housing advocate promoting entry-level environmentally friendly "green build" homes.

He opposes the $700 billion bailout of the financial industry approved by Congress.

"What have they done for the average person? They need to address what they are going to do about the liquidity of each household, how they are going to keep them in their homes," says Loya, who lives near Española in the tiny community of Arroyo Seco.

New Mexico was one of only two states in 2004 that flipped blue-to-red, Democratic-to-Republican in the presidential election. President Bush won the state partly because two-fifths of Hispanics supported the incumbent. In 2000, Democrat Al Gore carried the state by a mere 366 votes.

Voter registration and demographics suggest New Mexico should reliably go Democratic, but that hasn't happened in presidential elections. New Mexico went with the eventual White House winner all but twice since statehood — Gore in 2000 and Republican Gerald Ford in 1976.

Democrats outnumber Republicans but moderate-to-conservative Democrats, particularly in rural areas, can tilt to the GOP in statewide and federal races. Those swing voters pose a challenge for McCain given the sour economy and Bush's unpopularity.

Hispanics — overwhemingly Democrat in registration — represent a pivotal voting bloc in New Mexico elections. They account for about 43 percent of the population, which is the largest percentage of any state.

Traditionally, Democrats win presidential races when they carry the Albuquerque metropolitan area — a third of the population — and then bank hefty margins from heavily Hispanic Northern New Mexico to offset GOP strength in eastern and northwestern sections of the state. Las Cruces, the state's second largest city, usually adds to Democratic totals. The city hugs the southern border with Texas and Mexico.

Four years ago, Kerry tried to follow that script but lost by 5,988 votes, or just under 1 percentage point. He carried the Albuquerque area but stumbled with below average turnout and support in heavily Hispanic counties. Bush also stunned Democrats with a highly effective voter turnout operation, rolling up 2-to-1 and 3-to-1 margins in small towns and rural parts of Eastern and Southern New Mexico.

Kerry's experience explains why Obama traveled last month to Española for a rally that drew an estimated 9,500 — roughly equal to the community's population.

"To the Hispanic community, I want you to start actually voting your numbers. Start flexing your muscle. Right here in New Mexico you'll be the difference maker," Obama told the crowd. He was the first presidential candidate to appear in rural, Northern New Mexico in decades. Democrat John Kennedy campaigned in the area in 1960.

New Mexico is leaning in favor of Obama but the race "is not over," says Albuquerque pollster Brian Sanderoff.

"New Mexico mirrors the nation and if some big things happen nationally to turn things around, it will make it tighter in New Mexico as well," says Sanderoff.

According to a poll conducted by Sanderoff's company earlier this month, 45 percent of likely voters supported Obama and 40 percent backed McCain. However, 14 percent remain undecided. About 62 percent of Hispanics supported Obama — only four percentage points better than Kerry was doing at this stage of the campaign four years ago, Sanderoff says. Twenty-one percent of Hispanics are undecided — almost twice as many as four years ago. The poll, which was conducted Sept. 29 through Oct. 2 for the Albuquerque Journal, had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

The same survey found that two-thirds of New Mexicans consider the deteriorating national economy as the most important issue in the election.

Douglas Weaver, an artist in Roswell in GOP-leaning southeastern New Mexico, sizzles when talking about the economy and the financial industry bailout. A lifelong Republican, Weaver switched his party affiliation to Democratic two months ago and plans to vote for Obama.

"I'm not really happy with any of them," he says of the presidential candidates. "I think the answers they're giving are not real helpful. I spend most of my time on the television watching CNN and listening to the shows on politics. I'm hoping somebody will say something that makes sense."