You can tell most New Mexicans, or at least assimilated New Mexicans, by their reactions to rainstorms.

They're the ones out standing in them — or at the very least looking out from their porches and admiring the rain and that rich, earthy smell it brings.

Campers might look a bit grimly at the prediction of a thunder-filled and rainy start to the holiday weekend, but the rain lovers among us, at least, should have a little to look forward to tonight, Friday and Saturday.

On those days we'll get what Ed Polasko, a hydrologist at the National Weather Service, calls a "preview" of the monsoon season, with moisture moving up from both the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific through Mexico and into the Land of Enchantment.

The odd thing about this preview, though, is that this year, it's come a bit early, he said.

"It's not highly unusual to get a preview of coming attractions, which is what this is," Polasko said. "But typically the preview comes in June. And with warm temperatures hitting the state about three weeks early, it appears our normal June preview is now coming in May."

The pattern will bring moisture up through Southern New Mexico to the north over the next few days, said David Craft, a meteorologist with the service.

For those looking to camp over the holiday weekend, that means the Gila National Forest might be a better bet than heading north, he said.

"The Gila will be wet Friday, but it should start to dry out on Saturday and Saturday night," Craft said.

Areas to the north, like the Carson National Forest, will likely still get rain through Saturday night, which could make for some wet, unpleasant camping, he said.

"I know people who have canceled their camping plans already," Craft said.

In the city of Santa Fe, we'll likely see thunderstorms starting tonight and continuing through Friday and Saturday. Sunday, things will start to dry out, with a 24 percent chance of thunderstorms in Santa Fe, and on Monday that drops to a 15 percent chance, Craft said.

"Next week, though, there's a low pressure system and backdoor cold front that could move in Tuesday or Wednesday," Craft said. "When that comes, we'll see another pattern of moisture."

The rain and cooler temperatures will also likely take some of the sting out of what has been a warmer than usual May so far, Polasko said.

"This May started out as one of the top five warmest on record, but with a few cooler days we're dropping off that list," Polasko said. "The cold and rain will probably make this month much less remarkable."

And even though the rain systems over the next few weeks might look a bit like monsoon season has started very early, chances are we'll go back to the normal warm and dry weather that's more typical of this time of year until the typical start of monsoon season in early July.

"Monsoon is such a loaded word," Craft said. "This is a monsoon pattern. But the real monsoons, people expect them to stick around."

Contact Sue Vorenberg at svorenberg@sfnewmexican.com.

National Weather Service Predictions:

Tonight: 60 percent chance of heavy rains, low of 46 degrees.
Friday: 50 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms, high of 67 degrees.
Friday night: 50 percent chance of scattered thunderstorms, low of 42 degrees.
Saturday: 40 percent chance of thunderstorms, high of 70 degrees.
Saturday night: 30 percent chance of thunderstorms, low of 46 degrees.
Sunday: 24 percent chance of thunderstorms, high of 76 degrees.
Sunday night: 20 percent chance of thunderstorms, low of 48 degrees.
Monday: 15 percent chance of thunderstorms, high near 78 degrees.