Spring is shaping up to be hot, dry and windy so far around New Mexico, raising an early specter of a fast snowmelt and greater fire risks.

Precipitation in Santa Fe's watershed pretty much flat lined through February and the first week of March, according to moisture-watching agencies.

In the meantime, warm weather in the lower elevations the last week is melting off snow fast, according to data from snow telemetry sites in the mountains east of the city. The snow depth at the 8,200-foot elevation Elk Cabin site melted from 7.3 inches to 3.4 inches in the last week as temperatures steadily crept up. A healthy three feet of snow remained at the Santa Fe snow telemetry site, at nearly 11,500 feet, as of Wednesday and only two inches had melted off from the prior week. Northern New Mexico mountains and the Rio Chama basin still had snow pack water content at or above normal in February.

A more rapid melt at mid-elevation levels is a pattern around Northern New Mexico, according to Ken Scheffe, snow survey program manager for the Natural Resources Conservation Service.

The last time the Santa Fe Watershed received moisture was Feb. 9-11, when a much-welcomed snowstorm parked itself for a couple of days over the Sangre de Cristos, according to the Western Regional Climate Center. The city's two reservoirs combined were filled to 73 percent of capacity as of Wednesday, compared to only 58 percent at this time last year.

This week, about 1.18 million gallons of water a day were flowing into the reservoir, a sign that the snowpack is staying put and not melting too fast.

Scheffe said the most recent water supply forecast released Thursday is much gloomier than the one a month ago. The lack of precipitation, caused by an ongoing La Niña weather phenomena, decreased the spring water flow outlook for the Pecos and Canadian rivers to 75 percent of average. The Rio Grande is predicted right at 100 percent of its 30-year average stream flow, but a continued lack of moisture in the next few weeks could cause that to decline.

Scheffe said it isn't unusual to receive a couple of feet of snow in late March or early April, but right now, the signs indicate the dry spell will continue.

The northern part of the state so far has fared better since last fall than the south. The entire southern part of the state was "abnormally dry" by the first week of March, according to the National Weather Service drought monitor map. Normal precipitation was only seen in the Four Corners region and a strip from Fort Sumner to Clayton.

In Southern and Eastern New Mexico, the fire season is already under way.

A total of 152 wildfires have been reported since Jan. 1 and have burned about 15,400 acres of mostly state and private land, according to the State Forestry Division. Most of the fires are human caused from heavy equipment use, debris burning, smoking and downed power lines. "We had multiple fire starts today along Interstate 10 from a car dragging a chain," Ware said, noting the flames were quickly put out by fire crews. "But I think it is only a matter of time before we have a big one."

The 16,000-acre Hog Fire was burning in the far southeast part of Arizona in the Coronado National Forest this week. "Some of it has slopped over to our neck of the woods," Ware said.

The Lincoln National Forest is already considering fire restrictions and began posting "high fire danger" signs in February, according to staff Thursday. The forest has received almost no moisture all winter.

"We are potentially looking at an earlier than normal fire season," said Jacque Buchanan, Lincoln National Forest supervisor. "Weather predictions are indicating limited precipitation and above normal temperatures for the coming months, which could bring an early fire season," she said.

The seven-day forecast from the National Weather Service calls for only a slight chance of rain or snow through the weekend. La Niña is continuing to push storms into northern Colorado and higher latitudes, Scheffe said. "We need to hold our breath and hope we get more precipitation," he said.

Contact Staci Matlock at 986-3055 or smatlock@sfnewmexican.com.