Editor's note: As New Mexico prepares to celebrate its first 100 years as a state, The New Mexican asked notable residents to predict what could happen in the next century on several key topics.

The next century of dialogue about water in New Mexico could sound much like the last, hydrologist and water-rights broker Bill Turner predicts.

"In 100 years, I think the same problems will exist," he said.

By then, most of the water rights used for agricultural purposes will have been converted to rights for municipal use, he said, and New Mexico could be piping in water from as far away as Los Angeles.

At the same time, Turner expects new technology to be in place that will better use and preserve the state's water supply.

Turner said New Mexico has to catch up to the rest of the world when it comes to better conserving and distributing the water it has. "Other states and countries have done a lot more in terms of meeting their water demands."

Still, he is optimistic that the next 100 years will bring more education of elected officials about water, and more partnerships between private companies and government entities to preserve and better use the water New Mexico has. "There needs to be a real shift in understanding at the highest levels."

Turner is a hydrologist who in past years has pushed for a project that would divert the amount of water that normally evaporates from reservoirs, including Elephant Butte, into groundwater storage and retrieval projects. He works for a company that would then sell the water to users who need it, but the state has balked at the idea.

Turner said that case illustrates a bigger issue of a state that doesn't have the funds to build large-scale water projects but doesn't want private investors to have a stake in them, either.

"We have a long history of government that's opposed to private investment," he said.

Interstate Stream Commissioner Estevan Lopez said he thinks there will be more opportunities in the future for private industry to help states fund water-infrastructure projects, but "when it comes to private entities owning and controlling the water rights themselves, with a profit motive behind it, that gets much more scrutiny, I think, from the public."

Lopez predicts the state's conversation about water will focus on conservation, the climate and a larger understanding of what saving water for the future really means.

"I'm sure we'll have more gadgets [for conservation], but I think there will be a change in ethics. Do we really need a lawn at all? I think we perhaps need to think more about the importance of water and what we need, versus what we want."

Lopez, director of the commission since 2003, also said the state might have to shift some of its water use from agricultural needs to those of cities, even if it's only on a temporary basis.

"I think there could be voluntary agreements in dire circumstances that allow some water used for agriculture to move to higher-value people needs on a temporary basis," he said.

Paying for those types of projects will come at a large price, he added.

"I suspect it will be considerably more expensive than it is right now," he said. "If you value water differently, you end up having to pay differently as well."

On another hand, though, the state in 100 years might be done paying for something that's also costly: adjudication of water-rights claims that have taken countless dollars and hours to sort through so far.

"I think there is a realization among legislators — and hopefully courts as well — that we need to put some of these cases to bed," he said, adding that he hopes that projections of wrapping up adjudications in the next 50 years are correct.

"I hope we're done. But having said that, there is probably still a need not so much for adjudications but for a process to allow for movement of water from one use to another."

As the state struggles to apportion water to all its users, it must also battle mother nature, Lopez said.

"I think we are in for some huge challenges with regard to water," he said. "Climate change appears to be real, regardless of what the source is. If temperatures increase, there is going to be additional demand for water, even from the natural system."

Contact Kate Nash at 986-3036 or knash@sfnewmexican.com.