ALBUQUERQUE — A three-week surge of winter weather has helped pull New Mexico from the brink of a record-dry year, but officials said Thursday the state appears to be set up for another dose of dry, windy and warm weather this spring.

New Mexico is coming off of what forecasters with the National Weather Service have logged as the state's sixth driest year on record. It would have been one of the worst had a series of storms not dumped much-needed snow and rain around the state in December.

The result was an "infinite" improvement over how New Mexico was faring over last summer and fall, said weather service meteorologist Ed Polasko. In October, nearly 90 percent of the state was locked in severe drought. Now, it stands at less than 64 percent.

"This is about as good as it has looked since February 2011," he said. "Let's hope that it doesn't go downhill from here."

The problem is that the outlook through April continues with a good chance for below-normal precipitation, and the probability for above-normal temperatures remains high.

The outlook and New Mexico's current drought status were shared during a drought monitoring meeting Thursday.

Water managers said they are worried about sustaining New Mexico's snowpack, while agriculture experts said the numbers showing the drought's impact on cattle ranchers are starting to come in, and they don't look good.

Ranchers across the state were forced to sell off cattle last year as the drought left rangeland brown and dusty.

Preliminary figures show New Mexico is on track to have its lowest beef cattle inventory in 26 years. Les Owen with the New Mexico Department of Agriculture said he expects the number of female cows to drop below 400,000.

"It's been a long time since it's been that way," he said.

At the start of 2011, New Mexico had more than
1.5 million head of cattle spread between the beef and dairy industries. The New Mexico Livestock Bureau and New Mexico State University are working on updated inventory numbers based on export inspections and data from sale barns.

Caren Cowen, executive director of the New Mexico Cattle Growers Association, described 2011 as the worst year in memory for the range livestock industry in New Mexico.

Cattle prices were high, but she said the drought forced ranchers to buy more feed, which was being sold at a premium, and the cost of energy for pumping water for their herds remained high.

"The outlook continues to be bleak," Cowen said of the spring forecast, "but the nature of ranchers is to be optimistic while developing strategies to deal with another worst case scenario."

NMSU extension specialist Paul Gutierrez said cattle numbers had already been dropping over the last several years, but the drought led to unexpected decreases in herd numbers in New Mexico, Texas and Oklahoma.

The tight supply of cattle has also been driven by a strong domestic market for beef and growing international demand, he said.

With cattle prices expected to stay high this year, Gutierrez said it might be harder for New Mexico ranchers to rebuild their herds but he doesn't believe they're ready to give in to the drought.

"Last year was probably unprecedented in terms of the heat and drought and negative impacts to production, but at least they have an opportunity with a favorable market situation to make a go of what we've got," he said.




© Copyright Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.