University of New Mexico economist Larry Waldman recently got a telephone call he wasn't expecting.

"A Santa Fe carpenter called me and said he couldn't find work," Waldman said Wednesday at the fifth annual Economic Outlook Conference.

"He had to let go four employees," Waldman said. "He was even putting up notices on bulletin boards to find work."

It may take the carpenter a bit longer to find work, according to Waldman and others. "It's going to take several years for the state to get back to the levels it was at the beginning of the recession," said Waldman, who is with The University of New Mexico's Bureau of Business and Economic Research. Other speakers included Eugenio Aleman, senior economist with Wells Fargo & Co., and Thomas Hoeing, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The event drew about 400 people to the Embassy Suites in Albuquerque.

In other remarks, Waldman reviewed Santa Fe's job growth, which he said is more important than the unemployment rate or other indicators in understanding an economy.

In 2009, Santa Fe lost jobs in the first, second and third quarters. The fourth quarter, which ended Dec. 31, is also expected to be a loser.

For 2010, the Bureau of Business and Economic Research is predicting weak growth in Santa Fe, starting with 0.2 percent in the first quarter, rising to 1.9 percent in the second quarter and 1.4 percent in both the third and fourth quarters.

Statewide, using information from both the Department of Workforce Solutions' current labor statistics and its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Waldman determined job growth is worse than it first appeared.

"We've got an economy ... that is weaker than we thought it was. For the year, we'll have a minus 4.3 percent growth rate. The recession in New Mexico has been deeper than we thought, and it will probably be longer-lasting in New Mexico than we originally thought."

From third-quarter 2008 through third-quarter 2009, New Mexico's construction industry lost 10,000 jobs, while business and professional services dropped 9,000 Waldman said.

The only industry sector that's growing is health care, Waldman said, "and that's not good news."

"There has been nothing like this except for a quarter in 1943, when we had a negative 6 percent job growth," Waldman said. "In terms of an extended recession, there has been nothing like this since the 1930s."

Waldman predicted it won't be until 2012 when the number of jobs return to the 2008 level.

In his remarks, Aleman said the national economy showed slight signs of a recovery in late 2009, but he doesn't think that's sustainable.

That won't happen until consumers re-enter the economy and start buying and spending again. That, in turn, is linked to the loosening of credit markets, which is unlikely because banks are still trying to recapitalize.

"You cannot lend and recapitalize at the same time," Aleman said, "and since they are recapitalizing, they're not lending."

Aleman thinks 2010 will be better than 2009. "It's going to be good compared to 2008 and 2009, but it is not going to be great," he said.

Hoenig said he is against keeping interest rates too low for too long.

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates to almost zero and increased the size of its balance sheet to about $2 trillion by purchasing assets to bolster credit markets and revive the economy.

Hoenig is among the more anti-inflation members of the Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee.

"We all want to see a healthy recovery," he said, "but we want to see a lasting recovery as well."

Contact Bob Quick at 986-3011 or bobquick@sfnewmexican.com.