End of buildup keeps county mired in recession
With big projects completed, construction jobs take hit

Bruce Krasnow | The New Mexican
Posted: Friday, October 30, 2009
- 10/29/09
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The construction cranes that towered over Santa Fe for two years did more than just move steel into new buildings and bridges — they created jobs.

Now the big projects — the convention center, a new museum, Buffalo Thunder Resort and Casino, the Rail Runner — are done, and so are the construction workers and their paychecks.

While some of the United States may have returned to economic growth, Santa Fe County remains in recession, and the loss of jobs may keep it there well into next year, according to economists who have looked at the data.

"Things are not good in Santa Fe at the moment," said Larry Waldman, an economist with the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at The University of New Mexico.

Santa Fe's economy contracted in the third quarter of 2009 — and the decline was greater than other parts of New Mexico, Waldman said.

Construction was the hardest hit as the industry lost 1,200 jobs from Sept. 2007 to last month — 25 percent of the industry's work force, according to the recent Labor Market Review from the state Department of Workforce Solutions.

"It's pretty dreadful, a huge segment of the construction jobs were lost," said Mark Boyd, an economist with the Department of Workforce Solutions.

The overall unemployment rate in Santa Fe County was 6.7 percent in September, up from 3.8 a year ago. During that time 2,700 jobs were lost, or about 4 percent of the work force.

"Employment totals have taken a sharp turn for the worse since the start of the year," the department wrote in its monthly report, saying only two industries — information (which includes the transient film industry) and government — added jobs from September 2007 to last month.

Other losses were 600 jobs in professional and business services, which would include those from the bankrupt Thornburg Mortgage Co., and 500 in retail.

An analysis of the county work force compiled by Boyd with 33 months of labor numbers for Santa Fe County shows:
  • Total employment was 63,200 in January 2007, then peaked at 66,800 in July 2008 before tumbling to an estimated 62,600 last month.
  • Private-sector jobs peaked at 50,000 in July 2008 and stood at an estimated 45,800 last month.
  • Government jobs have remained steady at 16,600 in January 2007 and 16,800 last month.
The job loss has resulted in county wages declining 13.5 percent in 2008 — or $92 million, according to UNM data.

While other parts of New Mexico have seen some bounce in real-estate sales, Santa Fe County has not — total sales through Sept. 30 were 857, down 21 percent from the 1,048 in the first nine months of 2008, according to Alan Ball with Southwestern Title & Escrow, who publishes a monthly newsletter on the Santa Fe market.

And sales are down some 58 percent from the peak year of 2005, which saw 2,038 residential sales in the first three quarters.

Waldman originally projected a modest recovery in Santa Fe starting in mid-2010, but that may be pushed back now that he's seen the new job numbers. He said contractors are still having a difficult time getting loans — and new private projects are stagnant.

"The recovery doesn't get very strong or stay very strong," Waldman said.

Duncan Sill, the economic development director for Santa Fe County, expects unemployment will worsen in Santa Fe with the recession continuing through 2010.

"My best guess is we won't see any indication of turnaround until the end of 2010 at the earliest," Sill said, "and that depends on the investments we continue to put in."

Boyd expects the private sector to continue to shed jobs, while government may remain steady due to federal government hiring related to the Census, though the freeze in capital-outlay spending and government hiring will hurt Santa Fe more than elsewhere.

For Sill, the investments include more energy-efficient initiatives and sustainable jobs such as the county-financed Santa Fe Studios, set for construction on N.M. 14.

There are other bright spots as federal stimulus money will continue to flow the first half of 2010 — including $196 million for environmental cleanup at LANL. The lab will also spend another $97 million for the Chemistry and Metallurgy Facility Replacement Project in the coming years.

Other publicly financed projects include:
  • The city of Santa Fe's continuation of a $30 million bond spent on improvements for city parks.
  • The county's $58 million downtown courthouse project.
  • Santa Fe Public Schools will spend $160 million over the next three years on construction and improvements at the public schools, including a new elementary school in Rancho Viejo, which opens in fall 2010.
  • The $200 million Buckman Direct Diversion Project is halfway completed but will continue to provide construction jobs through 2010.
Contact Bruce Krasnow at brucek@sfnewmexican.com.


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