Santa Fe voters are likely to re-elect Mayor David Coss on Tuesday, the latest poll numbers show.

Polling conducted last week for The New Mexican found more than half of prospective voters favor Coss over a pair of challengers.

The results showed little change from the comfortable lead the incumbent held in a poll conducted three weeks earlier.

Of 400 likely city voters contacted last week, 52 percent said they would cast a ballot for Coss, while 28 percent favored Asenath Kepler, a former city manager and city attorney.

Nine percent were still undecided, and 8 percent said they would vote for City Councilor Miguel Chavez for mayor.

The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

"Mayor Coss looks pretty safe in terms of getting re-elected," said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research Inc., the Washington, D.C., firm that conducted the polls. "He's over 50 percent. All he has to do is stay there and there is no way that he can lose."

The final point spread, Coker said, is likely to have Coss ahead by 10 to 15 percentage points because many undecided voters end up supporting challengers.

The days immediately before the election have featured last-minute pushes by municipal election candidates and their camps, all of whom say they will be going door to door and making phone calls this weekend to rally voters.

About 30 city employees picketed outside City Hall on Friday around lunchtime, and although none of their signs named Kepler, nearly all of them wore lapel pins bearing her name.

The endorsement of the local branch of the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees has been one of hot spots of the mayoral race. In December, the union's political action committee endorsed incumbent Coss and, as a result, he was awarded campaign cash through the state and national branches of the organization. But after the election of a new local union president, a different faction of union members voted to support Kepler. She also has the endorsement of the city's fire and police unions.

Lawrence Vigil, current AFSCME union president, said there was no denying that Friday's rally was related to issues at hand in the municipal election, but said he also wants city residents to be aware that union leadership is not happy with recent treatment under the Coss administration. He said two recent terminations of union activists and ongoing line-worker furloughs are evidence of that.

"We hope and pray Kepler wins," Vigil said. "If not, we are in for another four years of hell."

The split within the local union regarding the mayor's race led to the state organization filing a formal complaint with the city clerk on Friday.

Carter Bundy, political action representative for AFSCME International, said a notation on a $103 cash donation reported in a Feb. 22 Kepler finance report says "Union AFSCME" and gives the address of the state and international headquarters in Albuquerque, which did not provide the money.

"She is intentionally making a very misleading statement, trying to imply that the state and national organizations are supporting her campaign," said Bundy, who added later, "The union's support for Mayor Coss is unequivocal."

Kepler said the issue resulted from a "clerical error" that she plans to correct Monday in an amended campaign finance report. The money came from individual members of AFSCME, she said.

Coss, a retired government employee, is a former labor organizer. When it comes to quantity, he counts on support from dozens of unions, including a political action arm of the AFL-CIO paying campaign workers on his behalf. He has endorsements from the American Federation of Teachers, the Hospital and Healthcare Workers District 1199 NM, two locals of the Communication Workers of America, International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees, International Brotherhood of Teamsters, and United Food and Commercial Workers.

Although he appears to hold a lead in popular opinion, in the last days before the election Coss sent a flier to prospective voters taking a decidedly negative perspective on Kepler. Although municipal elections are nonpartisan, the flier distributed in heavily Democratic Santa Fe twice pointed out that she's a Republican. It also stated that she "repeatedly attacked vital city services and doesn't support the Living Wage."

Kepler, who plans to meet with small groups at houses in the remaining few days of the campaign, said the Coss advertising used out-of-context quotes and was "misleading and untrue." She referred voters to her Web site for "fact checking."

Coss campaign manager Sandra Wechsler said she didn't consider the ad negative. She said Coss campaign activities between now and the election are focused on getting supporters energized.

"We've got a full-blown get-out-the-vote effort," she said. "It's all about making sure we turn out supporters to the polls."

After the election, Coss and his cadre of backers plan to celebrate in the Santa Fe Community Convention Center ballroom, which they have rented for the occasion. Kepler plans a party at La Fonda.

In addition to electing a mayor, voters in City Council Districts 1 and 2 will decide who wins contested races for council seats.

Chris Calvert, the incumbent candidate in the north-side District 1, usually works on Saturdays at his day job for the U.S. Postal Service. But he took vacation time this weekend to campaign in his district.

Challenger Russell Simon, a former newspaper reporter who now is a property association manager, said he has personally visited about 500 homes in Casa Solana to distribute campaign literature highlighting news-media endorsements in the district.

Simon drew attention to a Journal Santa Fe editorial statement that Calvert, whom that newspaper endorsed for re-election, was a "solid supporter" of Northwest Quadrant development plans for vacant city-owned land adjoining Casa Solana.

Calvert, who voted against the project when it came before the council, called that a misrepresentation and accused Simon of trying to mislead people.

"Anybody who has been to any of the public hearings or been involved in this project at all knows I have been one of the more vocal opponents of the project," Calvert said. "There is little doubt that (Simon) is out there taking advantage of that misstatement."

The Journal Santa Fe on Saturday published a correction as well as a story that noted Simon sent out a flier containing the "solid supporter" quote after he had contacted the newspaper himself to question its accuracy and was told the phrase should not have been part of the newspaper's editorial.

Simon also opposes the project, which has been a hot issue in the Casa Solana area.

Doug Nava, a state tax examiner also seeking the District 1 seat, said he is relying on election-day help from family members who have been volunteers with his campaign all along.

"We are going to stay away from all the dirty politics that have taken place," he said. "I'm not concerned about anyone else's election, I am only concerned about what I promised."

In District 2, which includes historic east-side and South Capitol neighborhoods, incumbent Councilor Rebecca Wurzburger continues to campaign for a third term while challenger Stefanie Beninato stumps for what would be her first elected office.

Early voting and absentee mailed ballots already account for nearly 2,000 ballots, which are waiting at City Hall to get counted with the others that arrive after the close of voting at 7 p.m. Tuesday. Nearly 47,000 citizens are eligible to vote. About 15,400 ballots were cast in the 2006 mayoral election.

Unofficial election results are expected Tuesday night. An official canvass of the returns begins the next morning, with official results due by the end of business Friday. A swearing-in ceremony for the election winners is scheduled for 6 p.m. March 8 at The Lensic Center for Performing Arts.

In the meantime, city rules give candidates until next weekend to remove all campaign signs from visible locations.

Contact Julie Ann Grimm at 986-3017 or jgrimm@sfnewmexican.com.