Polls show New Mexico Democrats leading in congressional races

| The Associated Press

11/2/2008 -

The Democrats running for Congress in New Mexico hold wide to narrow leads over their opponents, according to polls released just two days before the election, while presidential candidate Barack Obama enjoys a lead in the state over Republican John McCain.

Telephone surveys were conducted by Research & Polling Inc. between Tuesday and Thursday, the Albuquerque Journal reported Sunday.

In Northern New Mexico, Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a strong lead the Democrat-leaning 3rd Congressional District, with 51 percent of the support of people who had voted early or said they were likely to vote. Republican Dan East had 23 percent and independent Carol Miller 12 percent.

Fourteen percent of the 201 registered voters questioned in the district were undecided. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 7 percentage points.

Luján, a member of the state Public Regulation Commission and son of state House Speaker Ben Luján, had a commanding lead among both liberals and moderates surveyed, said Brian Sanderoff, head of Research & Polling. Luján also was backed by 27 percent of the self-described conservatives.

Sanderoff said, however, Luján has taken nothing for granted. "He's working hard and he's buying media time — he's become a strong candidate."

Luján was ahead among all age brackets, men and women and Hispanics and Anglos, the poll found.

Sanderoff said the high number of undecided voters could stem from the fact that voters in the far-flung district, which stretches from Farmington to Clovis, are not familiar with the candidates. None of them is particularly well known, he said.

Only once since the district was created 26 years ago has a Republican been elected, and his tenure only lasted 19 months.

In District 1, Democratic Martin Heinrich had 47 percent to Republican Darren White's 43 percent. Ten percent were undecided.

The poll called 400 registered voters, and the margin of error is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Sanderoff said White is doing well among Republicans and pulling in a fifth of the Democrats, "which a Republican has to do in order to have a chance of winning."

However, Heinrich garnered more support in the poll because he was ahead among independent voters, Sanderoff said. "A large proportion of the independents and the Hispanics are still undecided, and they will determine the outcome of the race," he said.

Twenty-six percent of the independents surveyed were undecided, as were 17 percent of Hispanics.

Heinrich, a former Albuquerque city councilor, was favored by 44 percent of the independent voters, while White, the Bernalillo County sheriff, was backed by 30 percent. Some 54 percent of Hispanic voters said they support Heinrich, compared to 29 percent for White.

The 1st District is made up of Bernalillo and Torrance counties and parts of Valencia, Sandoval and Santa Fe counties.

In Southern Mexico's District 2, Democrat Harry Teague leads Republican Ed Tinsley 45 percent to 41 percent.

The poll of 401 registered voters had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

As for the presidential race, Obama is leading McCain 51 percent to 43 percent among 1,002 registered voters statewide who had voted early or said they were likely to vote. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 points.

Five percent were undecided and 1 percent favored someone other than the major party candidates.

In a similar poll a month ago, Obama was backed by 45 percent and McCain by 40 percent.

"The reason that Barack Obama has the lead he has is because of Albuquerque," Sanderoff said.

In the state's population center, Obama led McCain by 22 points — 58 percent compared to 36 percent for McCain.

Women are more likely than men to back Obama, with 52 percent of the women responding to the survey favoring Obama, compared to 42 percent for McCain. Obama had the support of 50 percent of the men who responded; 44 percent of the men favored McCain.

Sanderoff said Obama was garnering most of the support of Hispanics. The poll found 66 percent of Hispanic voters preferred Obama, 25 percent backed McCain and 7 percent were undecided.

New Mexico Hispanics historically vote Democratic, but President Bush captured 38 percent of the Hispanic vote in New Mexico four years ago, helping him take the state over Democrat John Kerry. Hispanics make up about 43 percent of New Mexico's population.

Anglo voters preferred McCain, 52 percent to 43 percent for Obama.

Democrats outnumber Republicans in New Mexico, and by last week, McCain had not attracted enough Democratic support to win the state, Sanderoff said.

Some 83 percent of Democrats favored Obama and 88 percent of Republicans favored McCain. Obama had the support of 49 percent of the independent voters, while 34 percent of the independents favored McCain. Eleven percent of independents were undecided.

McCain did better than Obama among voters ages 35-49, with 49 percent of their support compared to 43 percent for Obama. Obama did better among voters younger and older than that segment.