Analysis: By soldiering on, Richardson could be aiming for major position if fellow Democrat wins
Steve Terrell | The New Mexican
Posted: Tuesday, January 08, 2008
- 1/9/08
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MANCHESTER, N.H. — Despite another single-digit, distant-fourth-place finish on Tuesday, a buoyant Gov. Bill Richardson told a cheering crowd that he's staying in the Democratic presidential race.

Taking the stage at the Puritan Backroom Conference Center to the pulsating beat of U2's "Where the Streets Have No Name," Richardson told New Hampshire supporters, "We head out West and the fight goes on!"

At the time Richardson made his speech he was pulling between 4 and 5 percent of the New Hampshire vote. He hadn't aired any paid ads for several days and had virtually disappeared from free media coverage. He still trails in polls elsewhere.

Some not connected to Richardson speculate he's staying in the race to increase his chances of getting the vice-presidential nod or perhaps a major position in the next administration if a fellow Democrat wins the White House in November. The fact Richardson routinely says he's not interested in other offices hasn't stopped the frequent mentions of that possibility.

Could he be staying in the hunt for delegates with an eye toward his role at the party's national convention in August?

If he stays in the race through the "Super Tuesday" primaries on Feb. 5, Richardson could find himself in control of all of New Mexico's delegates to the Democratic National Convention, University of New Mexico political science professor Lonna Atkeson said. If he then drops out of the race after Feb. 5, he could deliver his delegates to the remaining candidate of his choice, Atkeson said. In the case of a close race for the nomination, this could curry favor for Richardson.

Tuesday's primary was the second time in less than a week that Richardson lost badly. He had won just 2 percent of the Democratic delegates in Iowa. But, just like his speech on the night of Iowa's vote count, Richardson's remarks Tuesday night might have led a person who didn't know the numbers to think Richardson was declaring victory.

The New Mexico governor said he will compete in the Jan. 19 Nevada primary and go on to Feb. 5, when 22 states hold primaries and caucuses. Richardson this week has touted his chances in several Western states on Feb. 5, including Colorado, Arizona, California and New Mexico. But except for his home state, where he is expected to win big as a favorite son, Richardson's poll numbers in the other Western states are in single digits.

Richardson and his entourage were returning to New Mexico on Tuesday night.



Sen. John McCain won the Republican presidential primary and Sen. Hillary Clinton defeated Sen. Barak Obama in the Democratic race. Meanwhile, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson garnered five percent support with 296 of 301 precincts reporting.

Updated 8:30 a.m., Jan. 9
Democratic Presidential Primary, New Hampshire


300 of 301 precincts - 99 percent
x-Hillary Clinton 112,238 - 39 percent
Barack Obama 104,757 - 36 percent
John Edwards 48,666 - 17 percent
Bill Richardson 13,245 - 5 percent
Dennis Kucinich 3,912 - 1 percent
Total Write-ins 3,076 - 1 percent
Joe Biden 628 - 0 percent
Mike Gravel 402 - 0 percent
Others 925 - 0 percent

Republican presidential primary, New Hampshire


300 of 301 precincts - 99 percent
x-John McCain 88,447 - 37 percent
Mitt Romney 75,202 - 31 percent
Mike Huckabee 26,760 - 11 percent
Rudy Giuliani 20,387 - 9 percent
Ron Paul 18,276 - 8 percent
Total Write-ins 4,908 - 2 percent
Fred Thompson 2,884 - 1 percent
Others 2,045 - 1 percent



x-winner




Referring to the fact that Sen. Hillary Clinton was running stronger against Sen. Barack Obama than many had expected after Iowa, Richardson said: "From results tonight, we know that there's not going to be any premature coronation."

The governor didn't stay around long enough to be asked how he expects to raise enough money for the upcoming primaries after losing big in Iowa and New Hampshire, where he has focused his efforts for the past year.

"My rule is that candidates stay in until the money runs out and the staff threaten to quit," Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said Tuesday. "It's possible Richardson will try to place in Nevada after New Hampshire. We'll see. Dreams of the White House die hard."

The fact that Richardson was not advertising on New Hampshire television in the final days of the primary campaign was a sign he was watching his cash.

"I think Richardson can go on to Feb. 5," said UNM's Atkeson. "That's when our state (Democratic caucus) is. I don't know if he wants to open up the state to other candidates."

How about the possibility of being chosen as vice president? Would it help or hurt Richardson's chances if he stays in the race after two poor showings?

"A candidate benefits if he proves he's a vote-getter," Sabato said. "That argues for staying in the race — though without getting too negative toward candidates who might choose him."

Richardson apparently already has angered the campaign of one of the Democratic front-runners, Hillary Clinton, over an alleged deal in Iowa with Barack Obama's camp, according to reported comments by past and present Clinton confidants.

Both the Richardson and Obama campaigns vehemently denied they had reached a deal in which Richardson supporters would go to Obama in precincts in which Richardson didn't reach the 15 percent threshold for viability. In exchange, according to the reports, Obama supporters would go to Richardson at caucuses in which Obama had more backers than needed to win any additional delegates.

E.S. Gaffney, a retired Los Alamos National Laboratory employee now living in Iowa, was a precinct captain for Richardson in Council Bluffs last week. Gaffney lent credence to the reports with a caucus-night account he sent to New Mexico newspapers.

"Richardson had asked that his supporters move to Obama if he was not viable in their precinct," Gaffney wrote. "That was an interesting piece of strategy. Bill's goal was to come out of Iowa in fourth place, but also to see that neither Edwards nor Hillary get a big boost that night. His campaign figured that would give him the best chance going on to New Hampshire and Nevada. Edwards in third place would, hopefully, not get the endorsement of Nevada's all important Culinary Workers Union. Biden's and Dodd's people had similar instructions as well."

Gaffney said in a phone interview Tuesday that the request came from a member of Richardson's staff in Council Bluffs. "It was more of a suggestion than an order," he said.

Ironically, after sticking up for Clinton in some of the later debates, some pundits assumed he was trying to curry favor with the former first lady, perhaps with the vice-presidential nomination or another major role in a Hillary Clinton administration in mind.

Atkeson said perhaps Richardson "smelled a big Obama turnout" in Iowa and decided to cast his lot with that campaign.

Sabato said at this point Richardson is not Clinton's biggest worry. "Obviously, something must have happened before Clinton aides say the Clintons are furious. But they've got bigger fish to fry, considering her campaign decline."

Sabato made his comment before Clinton came out ahead of Obama in New Hampshire.

Whatever his national plans, Richardson probably can expect some criticism by New Mexico Republicans in the state Legislature — and possibly even some Democrats — if he continues his presidential race.

The Legislature convenes next week for a 30-day session. If Richardson actively stays on the presidential campaign trail until Feb. 5, he will have diverted his attention through two-thirds of the session.

So far Republicans, undoubtedly realizing the governor's popularity in New Mexico, haven't made an issue of Richardson being out of state so much during the past nine months.

On the night of the Iowa caucuses, House Republican Whip Dan Foley of Roswell said Richardson has made a good-faith run for president, but suggested if he didn't do better in New Hampshire, it might be time for him to come home.

Although no Democrat has complained about the possibility of Richardson missing the Legislature for a campaign that has yet to catch fire, there could be grumbling if the session starts getting heated.

Contact Steve Terrell at 986-3037 or sterrell@sfnewmexican.com.



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